people in motion

people in motion

mercredi 9 mai 2012

Russia’s Competitive Advantages


Russia’s Competitive Advantages

Russia’s Investment Climate Shines Among Other High Growth Economies



Despite the prevailing bleak economic outlook, there is a silver lining for investors willing to brave the odds to do business in Russia, a new report found. Russia continues to shine among the world’s high growth economies, despite a steady stream of bad economic news about the country's investment climate, according to KPMG’s Competitive Alternatives 2012 report released on Saturday. The report, which helps businesses make informed decisions on where their operation will have the best opportunity, found that Russian leaders may have indeed been hard at work to retain current investors while trying to attract new ones.
As with previous reports, the KPMG's latest report compares the costs of doing business and other competitiveness factors in more than 110 cities in 14 countries. But for the first time, the report included the five leading high growth countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China (also known as BRIC) and Mexico. “Over the last decade, these five countries have nearly doubled their share of world output and they now account for one fifth of the global GDP,” said the authors. Their rapid economic growth has been integrally linked with their lower labor costs and increasing importance in global supply chains, said the report. However, rapid economic growth has also led to the emergence of a large and growing middle class in those countries, creating a more self-sustaining economic base.

The survey expresses business costs as an index, with the United States being assigned the baseline index of 100. Compared to the U.S. baseline, business costs in the five emerging countries are below those in the nine mature countries examined. China and India are the cost leaders among the high growth countries, with overall business costs at 25.8 and 25.3 percent, respectively. Mexico ranks third among the countries, with business costs 21 percent below the United States, while Russia ranked fourth with business costs 19.7 percent below the U.S. baseline. Among mature markets, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Canada are the low-cost leaders, with business costs over five percent lower than in the United States. 

Russia received high marks in a range of cost and non-cost issues related to the high growth markets. Russia is the only high growth country in the study to have achieved universal literacy. Russia and Canada are world’s leaders in higher education attainment, with at least 50 percent of their labor forces being educated at the tertiary level. While India has emerged as a global IT and call-center hub, nearly 40 percent of its population is still illiterate. Russia, together with Mexico and Brazil, is also highly urbanized, with at least two thirds of the population living in urban areas, another indicator of the potential labor supply. By contrast, less than half of China’s population lives in urban areas, even though the proportion of urban dwellers in China has almost doubled since 1990.

Among high growth economies, Russia’s indicators on innovation employment are generally similar to those of mature economies, even though its R&D spending is lower than in the mature economies and the business executive survey rates Russia’s capacity to innovate as quite low. Though Russia still trails China in the sheer scale of infrastructure investments, Russia now ranks first among the high growth countries for the quality of its information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure. However, it still ranks behind all of the mature countries on this measure and also has the second lowest score among the 14 countries for its physical distribution infrastructure, which has suffered from decay since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The primary focus of the latest report is, however, international business costs, including the cost of living, labor availability and skills, regulatory environment and personal quality of life factors. The report found that total costs per employee are higher in Russia and higher still in Brazil. Both nations have high statutory plan and benefit burdens related to social security, private medical and pension plans, employee transportation and meals, and a high number of holiday and vacation days, all of which substantially increase the total cost per employee. 

For businesses focusing on manufacturing operations, countries with the lowest effective income tax rates are Canada, followed by China, Russia, and the United Kingdom, all with effective tax rates below 20 percent. And for general corporate services operations, the lowest effective income tax rates are offered by Russia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and China. Taxes typically represent up to 18 percent of location-sensitive costs across the locations and industries examined, said the report.

When labor costs for administrative and customer service staff are taken into account, Russia, India and China are the most cost-competitive countries for digital operations among the high growth markets. In terms of human development, which is broadly based on life expectancy, education levels, and income components, Russia, Mexico and Brazil are thought to have achieved “high levels” among the high growth economies according to the United Nations.

On the flip side, Russia consistently ranks below other countries in the areas of government effectiveness, rule of law and corruption. Among the high growth countries, Brazil receives the highest ranking in the rule of law and corruption categories, while Mexico is the highest ranking in the government effectiveness category. Russia’s performance is viewed as being the weakest among all 14 countries across each of these three indicators. And while the high growth countries generally have a young age demographic, providing advantages for both the labor supply and consumption, Russia remains an exception with an aging population.

mardi 8 mai 2012


The Adjusted Gold/XAU Ratio as an Indicator of 
Forward Returns for Gold Stocks

The latest data have a clear message for investors: gold stocks are attractively priced.
That’s the current finding of my model for evaluating stock prices of gold mining concerns, updating historic data to incorporate information as of April 30, 2012.
In an October 2011 an article explained how the ratio of gold prices to the price of XAU, a capitalization-weighted index consisting of 16 precious-metal mining companies, provides useful information that investors can use to anticipate the price of gold stocks.
The gold/XAU ratio has had an upward trend since 1968, which reduces the value of gold stocks relative to the price of gold bullion. Because of this trend, in order to make the current ratio directly comparable to the historic ratios, one has to increase the ratio’s historic values to compensate. This adjustment enables us to predict the returns for XAU based on the historic returns that followed trend-adjusted gold/XAU ratios of equal magnitude.
My analysis shows that XAU is considerably undervalued, as the relationship between the price of gold and the shares of companies who mine it is now significantly above the long-term trend line.
Trend of the gold/XAU ratio and returns for XAU
Figure 1 shows data from 1977 to 2011, including the price of gold, XAU, the gold/XAU ratio, and the trendline of the ratio, all updated through April 30, 2012. The most recent gold/XAU ratio is approximately 10.5. For context, a ratio that high was seen only once before since 1977, in November 2008.
The slope of the trend line indicates the rate at which gold stocks loose value relative to the price of gold bullion, which is now about 0.3% per month. Thus, if gold were to gain 4% over a year, $60 per ounce based on the current price, the value of gold stocks would not increase. The reason for this could be increasing mining costs, which are rising at about 8% year-over-year. With the average cash costs for gold miners at about $650 per ounce – a $60 increase would only compensate for the increased costs.


Figure 2 shows the price of gold, XAU, the trend-adjusted gold/XAU ratio, and the linear regression line of that adjusted ratio. The linear regression line is horizontal, indicating that the adjusted ratio is not trending in any direction, which confirms that one can compare the adjusted ratios directly with each other over time.  It also shows that past adjusted ratios were higher than the current level early in 1980, which was not the case for the un-adjusted ratio depicted in Figure 1.
Also shown is a blue trend line that connects the five peaks of the trend-adjusted ratio between 1980 and 2001, as well as the trend line’s extension from 2001 to the end of 2012. One can see that the 2008 peak of the trend-adjusted ratio fits the extended trend line reasonably well. Also, after each of the identified peaks of the ratio, there has been a significant gain in the level of XAU that occurred jointly with an increase of the price of gold.
Currently the gold/XAU ratio is below the extension of the trend line. If the blue trend line is indeed an indicator for peaks in the ratio, then we can expect such a peak to occur soon. Extending the current trend of the adjusted ratio, as represented by the short green line, we can anticipate intersection with the blue line at a level of about 11.4, which would indicate the expected peak level of the gold/XAU ratio. An increase in the price of gold with XAU gaining relatively less – or, alternatively, a further decline of XAU with gold remaining at the current price – could lead to the anticipated peak level. Once the trend-adjusted ratio has formed a peak and starts to decline, one can reasonably expect good gains for gold stocks afterwards, as has always been the case in the past. Those prior examples are listed in Table 1.

XAU & adjusted Gold/XAU ratio
Table 1
date when peak of adjusted gold/XAU occurred
level of XAU at peak of adjusted gold/XAU
date when XAU gained most after peak of adjusted gold/XAU
max XAU after peak of adjusted gold/XAU
%-gain
annualized rate of return
1/21/1980
105.24
10/1/1980
183.59
74%
122%
7/15/1982
52.8
1/5/1983
150.11
184%
795%
7/30/1986
60.04
9/9/1987
155.74
159%
136%
11/30/1992
65.81
1/6/1994
145.57
121%
106%
11/20/2000
42.17
3/5/2008
206.37
389%
24%
10/28/2008
72.72
3/30/2011
228.95
215%
61%

The recent gold/XAU ratio and historic returns for XAU
As mentioned in my October 2011 article, one could have, based on the then-prevailing gold/XAU ratio of about 8.30, expected significant gains for XAU over the subsequent eight months. That time has almost passed, and XAU has instead lost value since then.
In order for XAU to gain, the gold/XAU ratio would have had to get lower and stay below the criterion value of 8.30 during the remainder of the stipulated investment period, or the extended investment period, as explained in the original article. Since the ratio never fell below 8.30 and is now about 10.5, the investment period is not complete, and thus a final determination cannot be made on whether the investment strategy was successful or not.
But what performance can we expect from gold stocks in the near future? Looking back we see that there were only two other occasions when the adjusted ratio was as high as the current level, namely in 1980 and 2008. The returns that followed on those occasions when the adjusted ratio was 10.0 are shown in the table below.
Table 2
Historic XAU Returns for Criteria Value of Adjusted Gold/XAU = 10.0
and minimum investment period of 180 days
Investment Period  from     -       to
XAU value at start
$
XAU value at end
$
no. of months in each period
absolute return for each period
gain
(loss) over period
$
1/3/80
10/6/80
79.5
178.0
9.1
123.8%
98.5
10/22/08
5/16/09
71.7
136.7
6.8
90.7%
65.0
4/11/12
-
164.3
-
-
-

If history repeats itself, then substantial returns await investors in gold equities – and they may be realized fairly soon.

mercredi 2 mai 2012

Money, Power and Wall Street : Frontline On Financial Fraud


-For the History records-

In one of the most complete documentaries undertaken on the financial crisis, PBS Frontline's "Money, Power, & Wall Street" series stretches from the origins of the credit derivative business with a pool-side Blythe Masters and her JPMorgan colleagues to the scary (but absolutely true) fact that the financial crisis never ended. 





Money, Power and Wall Street : Frontline On Financial Fraud

The four-part series can be found on the link below. A must-watch series from beginning to end to get a grasp of how we got here, where exactly we are now and what we can expect in the next few years.

The chapter-headings alone generate enough insight into the documentary's depth
Chapter 1 - A Brave New World of Banking
A group of young bankers make history with the creation of the credit default swap market
Chapter 2: Funding The American Dream
The Wall Street and mortgage lobbies successfully defeat attempts to regulate derivatives
Chapter 3: Marching Towards The Cliff
JPMorgan reassesses, pulls back from the mortgage market but other banks can't get enough
Chapter 4: The Unraveling Begins
When the housing bubble burst, CDS bring the global economy to its knees
Episode 2
Chapter 1 - Systemic Risk
Bear Stearns collapses; regulators fear its effects on the financial system
Chapter 2 - The Summer Of Assurances
The financial crisis becomes increasingly obvious, but there's no decisive action
Chapter 3 - The Decision To Let Lehman Fail
Paulson bet the markets would take care of themselves but would soon learn he was wrong
Chapter 4 - AIG Gets A Bailout
A decision by Geithner means billions of US Government dollars flows to Wall Street
Chapter 5 - A Turning Point?
Paulson decides on a dramatic use of the TARP money: capital injections to the banks.
In addition the entire set of 20 in-depth interviews with the various players (from Sheila Bair to Rodgin Cohen with a smattering of Jared Bernstein and Dick Fisher in between) can be found
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/oral-history/financial-crisis/