people in motion

people in motion

jeudi 21 mars 2013

Pauvre Con !

Le cave se rebiffe !

Ils avaient le droit de faire ça?

La dernière réplique résume tout ! 



« Nous pensons que si vous sapez les bases de la monnaie, vous sapez aussi les bases de l’économie. La difficulté est de définir quelle est la part de la structure de liquidités qui correspond à de la vraie monnaie » ; « la monnaie, je ne sais plus très bien ce que c’est ». Alan Greenspan, 2000.

Dans les temps anciens, les Banquiers prêtaient aux Rois, aux Souverains. Incapables de se modérer, les Souverains se su rendettaient et se mettaient en situation de défaut de paiement. C’est alors que les Banquiers faisaient pression sur le Roi, lui dictait sa politique fiscale. Placés sous tutelle, les Souverains pressuraient le peuple pour honorer les créances des Banquiers. 

Les Banques Centrales ont été créées pour aider les Banquiers à faire le plein de leur créances en ajoutant à l’impôt visible , l’inflation tax invisible. Quand la Banque Centrale octroie de l’argent à un Banquier, elle dilue l’argent qui se trouve dans les mains des citoyens. 

L’histoire de la Great Experiment de John Law, n’est rien d’autres que celle là, poussée à sa plus extrême limite, c’est le modèle de la Great experiment de Greenspan, puis Bernanke; la bulle de la Compagnie du Mississipi est l’ancêtre de toutes les bulles car elle a été soufflée volontairement, cyniquement ».

mercredi 20 mars 2013

The Cypriot Haircut

Vlad ? The Washing Machine Is Broken 

After Lehman, after Ireland and Iceland, and after Greece, I think you must have lived in a cave for the past 5 years to really think that banks are safe because they are guaranteed by their governments. Come on! Please get real.
To tax dirty running money...? You don't have any moral left !
If you are a depositor in a Cypriot bank, whether of deposits of more or less than €100,000, who did you think was guaranteeing your deposit? The Blue Fairy? Did you really think that in such a small place with such a bizarrely bloated banking system – one that for years and, by now, very publicly had been investing in Greek government bonds! – your government had the resources to protect all depositors? The bailout of Cyprus’ two largest banks will cost the equivalent of 60% of GDP! And after what happened in Greece, did you really think that the Germans were willing to cover the whole bill?
Mohamed El-Erian manages to write about this thing, without so much as mentioning the Russian thing.
I, too, was shocked yesterday morning. Not so much by the news that depositors at Cypriot banks would face a haircut, or a ‘levy’ or a ‘tax’, on their deposits as a contribution to yet another Eurozone bailout package funded by taxpayers in other counties but by the reaction in the press. Here was, according to the majority of the international commentariat, yet another example of the ineptitude or outright meanspiritedness of the Eurozone policy elite, another example of imposing needless and counterproductive hardship and brutal ‘austerity’ on innocent citizens in small and troubled countries. The Daily Telegraph on its front page spoke in usual hyperbole of a ‘EU raid on savings’ and, naturally, of another ‘threat to the recovery’. What agitated most commentators was that the ‘sanctity’ of deposit insurance had been carelessly violated as even deposits of less than €100,000 were, at first at least, supposed to be subjected to a reduced haircut as well. Those types of deposits are supposed to enjoy a ‘guarantee’ that magically shields them from the harsh reality of bankrupt banks and bankrupt states. Undermining this ‘guarantee’ could have wide-reaching consequences beyond tiny Cyprus as it has the potential to undermine the trust in banking system in Greece, Spain and Portugal.
I agree that this move is risky. The international banking system is highly levered and in large parts has been teetering on the brink of disaster for many years. Anything that affects depositors can have grave consequences. 


The entire nation could be bailed out several times over without imposing any serious costs on its partners in the single currency.

In that sense, the decision was a “Lehman moment” for the markets. Why? Because when the U.S. authorities were faced with the choice of bailing out the Wall Street bank in 2008, they decided it was not worth the moral hazard involved. They reckoned it was better to let it go bust than allow a bunch of wild, over-paid investment bankers to pass their losses onto the state.

As it turned out, that was a big mistake. After Lehman, we had the credit crunch, and a five-year global depression. If the clock could be re-wound, there is no doubt those same regulators and politicians would give Lehman the few billion it needed to stay afloat. It would have been cheap at any price.

Likewise, Germany and France decided it was better to impose some costs on bank creditors than let them think they could get bailed-out for nothing. The trouble is, euro-zone finance ministers have no grasp of how the markets work. They have not understood how interconnected they have become, or how relatively small events can have big consequences if they send out the wrong signals.

Now they have made it clear that no bank deposit in the euro zone is safe, and they shouldn’t be surprised if money starts to leave the continent. They might be backpedaling furiously now, looking at ways to protect small savers. But the damage has been done.

If the officials running the euro zone can’t get to grips with how markets work, the bull market is not going to get any traction. The world economy may well steadily improve, employment will rise, debt may come down, and corporate profits power ahead. But the euro zone will keep chucking Lehmans into the mix.

Every time equity markets start to rise, there will be another catastrophe in Europe and they will start to wobble again.

But given the state of affairs, any meaningful attempt to deal with the banking systems’ problems must inevitably entail risks. The questions are the following: Are the right type of risks being taken? And what would the alternative be?

Banking is a risky business because banks are highly leveraged enterprises. (Sorry to break that news to you.) In a fractional-reserve banking system ‘deposits’ are not deposits (i.e. contracts for safe-keeping) but loans to banks and thus loans to highly leveraged businesses.

Most people in developed countries have become used to not worrying about the health of individual banks. They have, over the course of decades, been conditioned to believe that all banks are regulated by the state and ultimately protected by the state. – Yes, but only so that the banks can take even more risks and become even more leveraged. State ‘protection’ has now created a banking monster that is swallowing up the resources of the state itself. And this can hardly come as a shock surprise in early 2013!
The naïve believe that bank deposits are always ‘money good’ because they are backed by the state and the state, after all, is an endless cornucopia, was maybe understandable, or at least excusable, until about 2008, when then Prime Minister of Ireland, Brian Cowen, in the middle of the Irish banking crisis, had the genius idea to simply declare a state guarantee for all deposits at Irish banks. Hey, problem solved! Obviously, Cowen didn’t do the math and didn’t realize how big that guarantee was going to be. Well, he was found out by the markets – and Ireland, the country, went bankrupt.

"Those who are unaware they are walking in darkness, will never seek the light."--Bruce Lee

lundi 11 mars 2013

Currency war


Presenting The Currence Crises, Devaluations And Regime Changes Since The Collapse Of The Gold Standard

“‘Devaluing a currency,’ one senior Federal Reserve official once told me, ‘is like peeing in bed. It feels good at first, but pretty soon it becomes a real mess.’”
—Francesco Guerrera, The Wall Street Journal, 4 Feb 2013.

One of the often repeated "truisms" of modern economics, is that the advent of central banking, and the end of the gold standard ushered in a far more stable, safe and secure financial system. Facts notwithstanding (because hard as we try, we can't find a historic episode where the entire developed world had to coordinate to fund, guarantee and backstop a $30+ trillion global bail out - using even more money created out of thin air, i.e., debt - to prevent the nearly $1 quadrillion derivative complex from collapsing, not to mention the failure of every single modern financial institution, during the gold standard), the reality is just slightly different.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has already tried twice in 2000 (chaired by Greenspan) and 2007 (chaired by Bernanke) to create a bubble of shares through ultra loose monetary policy and has failed miserably since this resulted in two stock market crashes that have ruined many people and institutions. We are at the third attempt, the probability calculation shows that there is a good chance it ends in a crisis much stronger than the first two fiscal imbalances, the public and private debt and the creation counterfeit currency by that central bank is much larger than in 2000 and 2007. So true is it that ultra laxist monetary policies are only able to create bubbles temporary financial assets that have ALWAYS eventually bursts much worse than they had been able to create illusions initially.
Everything indicates that the size of the next crash will be unmatched and central banks, which are most of them already insolvent because their bloated balance sheets are no longer composed only of rotten assets (or their having been largely sold rented or covertly) will then simply double bankruptcy collapse fake paper money they print without any restraint and bonds hyper-indebted they buy on tap.
In other words, the financial economy is in an inflationary bubble while the real economy is almost in deflation (killed by the tax increases needed to pay public debts) in the U.S. and euro area and Japan. A cocktail that has never allowed the history to recreate sustainable growth and effective  employment, especially in open economies subject to destructive globalization distorted by generalized competitive devaluations (the "currency war" ). 


As the following table from Bloomberg's Joseph Brusuelas shows, modern "stabilty" is certainly in the eye of the beholder, in this case manifesting itself in countless periods of uni- and multi-lateral currency devaluation, beggar thy neighbor, and currency, trade, and various other types of war.
Here is Brusuelas' personal take on the past 80 years of "stable" central banking and floating exchange rate history:
Tensions between policymakers due to volatility in foreign-exchange markets pale in comparison to those induced by the policies of the Great Depression. That period saw tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed by countries attempting to arrest the economic slide that characterized the global economy in 1929-1939. The coordination between the large global central banks that are engaging in competitive QE has avoided the outbreak of protectionism that was observed during the 1930s. In Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War, he stated: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” As the large central banks attempt to boost their economies via QE, small and developing countries will likely have to  adjust by accepting faster inflation or accommodate to these policy changes by accepting currency appreciation.
Currency warfare summary table:
Keep an eye on the 2007-??? line item. If history is any indication, what follows next will hardly be pleasant for anyone involved
See also   Currency Farce

jeudi 7 mars 2013

Devaluation


Clowns to the left; Jokers to the right.
 
We play to win and win we shall but sometimes I look at it all and shake my head. The deceit of manufactured debt to GDP ratios in Europe, the complete deception of America’s CPI numbers and the political lies bandied about daily like they were some form of truth when they don’t even mirror a distorted view of reality. This morning I wandered into my living room and sat down on the floor; just sat there. Now I am not a yoga kind of guy and I wasn’t asking for Divine guidance, though maybe that would have helped, but I just sat there and took a measure of the world. 

Submitted by Mark J. Grant
See also previous comments 
Une bulle en chasse une autre
Bubble Formation And Bubble Bursting 

We are faced with the corollary of the famous maxim; “It is not who votes that matters but who counts the votes that matters.” It is not the numbers but who devises them and then applies them that matters. It isn’t magic but trickery and you and I are the audience.
The markets are where they are for one reason only, just one, the sea of money that the central banks have poured out across the globe. There is no other reason. Money flows into the corporations, money flows into the markets and the tide rises because it must but it is a House of Cards, a dangerous game that works because there is no place else to go with money and the euphoria, New Year’s Eve at the Big Casino, continues but the price will be high when it all ends and it will end because it is not this or that asset class that is in a bubble but the entire world that is a giant soap bubble that will float until the heat of the sun pops the thing in one ugly mess. 

I fear that subprime loans, dot.com fantasies, and the S&L crisis will pale when we are done with this party because, my friends, the bill for the festivities must get paid.
 
The next competition will be Currency Wars. 

Plenty of time to play; we have only had currency skirmishes to date. The boys in the backroom can’t do the Inflation play; “out of bounds” say the politicians. The little blue and green pieces of paper created out of thin air is growing limp and the magicians of money have searched their bag of tricks and will be performing live and in person soon. Here is the scheme; lower the value of all of the currencies and play the Absolute Value game where Relative Value is consigned to a secondary position. 
This means that all currencies must be deflated to a lower value regardless of how the Dollar trades against the Euro or the Yen. Now the simplest way to do this is to Devalue in coordination but that course is unlikely as it would be impossibly tough to explain. The trick will be based upon the same methodology as debt to GDP ratios or the CPI fiction; it all depends on what is counted. 
There have been many postulates floated about, in the case of America’s CPI number, that real Inflation is somewhere around 8.00%. However if this was accurate and the number used then everything tied to CPI such as wages and pensions would increase dramatically and so the reality is ignored and the data is defined by how it is counted. A great trick; an effective sleight of hand.
Bernanke taught rats to behave 
His fiat he taught them to crave 
By making them think 
There's value in ink 
Their minds he did quickly enslave
So those in the green eye shades sit around and plot. It worked for CPI, it worked for the debt to GDP ratios where liabilities of all types are not counted and tossed into the trash bin so why won’t it work for currencies; it will. Prices of goods and services don’t have to rise; it is just that a scheme to use more Dollars or Euros to buy them must be put in place. So it will be Devaluation by fiat but since it is a new game; it will be tricky. It is a game that has never been played before and there is no rule book for this one.
 
Watch the hat; the rabbit will be coming out soon.

lundi 4 mars 2013

Send in the Clowns

People's Anger

The Swiss people vote this week end for the plebiscite initiative against abusive wages brings to light a gap which separates the common people disgusted by excesses from the elites of a nation. In Italy, in Spain, Portugal or Greece the populace has had enough of the politics insistence on austerity.
Also see our site Reinvent Capitalism Without Delay

Swiss citizens expressed their dissatisfaction with the exorbitant salaries of top managers. The plebiscite initiative Minder (68% in favor) signs  a sanction against their lobbies (such as economiesuisse) as well. The parliament, which has dragged too and failed to forge a convincing counter proposition, is also sanctioned.

“More than half of Italians voted for some form of populist”. Well,... wonder why that was. Could it be that they have had enough of the “freeloaders up there”? And then there is The Economist that bastion of the establishment with a remonstrating front page headline, “Send in the Clowns. How Italy’s disastrous election threatens the future of the euro”. 

The democratic process; more than half the electorate voted for Grillo and Berlusconi. When Grillo was making his name as a proper comedian the then premier of Italy, the head of the Italian Socialist party Bettino Craxi was visiting China. The apocryphal joke runs as follows. “If the Chinese are all socialists who do they steal from?” Craxi spent the latter years of his life in Tunisia to avoid the rather short arm of the Italian law on charges of corruption.

The euro is a political construct that has been flawed in design and execution from day one of its sorry existence. The Greeks know that; they have just been downgraded by Russell to emerging market status. In Spain with youth unemployment at 55% Catalonia has taken the first steps towards succession and ominously General Juan Antonio Chicharro, until 2010 commander of the Marine Corps, has opined that “What do the Armed Forces do now?” he gave no answer but the inference is quite clear. Added to the royal-political scandals, some might try to awaken the past !






mercredi 27 février 2013

Two Cows: The Infographic


There are many complexities in the socio-economic structures that the nations (and corporations) of the world have used (and abused) over the years. Volumes have been written to explain the intricacies of Capitalism, Fascism, Communism, and Socialism; and how these impact various corporations from Iran to Greece to Australia. However, in the interest of brevity, the following infographic - utilizing nothing more than two cows (which perhaps should now be horses, considering their inflationary displacement capacity for firms like IKEA and Nestle) to provide everything you need to know about ecomoomic s.

jeudi 21 février 2013

Gold : From the Situation Room

 Gold Back to Fundamentals...
Buy Low and Sell High !
Implications of a world floating on fiat currencies, and that government “solutions” to debt and deficit spending will significantly — perhaps catastrophically — dilute the value of currencies, the fallout of which has yet to materialize. And that’s how a number of prominent investors and institutions are viewing the price action right now. None of these parties think the gold bull market is over, nor that the price is too high.  As for me, I think that the longer the malaise continues, the more likely the breakout is to be both sudden and dramatic. 
It’s a tad puzzling that gold hasn’t broken into new highs, despite enough catalysts to move a herd of stubborn mules. But that’s the hand we’re dealt right now. We can’t get up from the table until the game reaches its conclusion. Besides, I think the stall in prices is giving us one last window to buy before prices break permanently into higher levels for this cycle.

We can all speculate about when the next leg up for gold will kick in, but the point for now is to take advantage of the weakness. When the price breaks out of its trading range, are you sure you won’t wish you’d bought a little more?


Gold Remains An Historically and Academically Proven Safe Haven. 


It remains very important that investors and savers understand gold’s importance as a safe haven asset and form of financial insurance.

There remains a significant lack of understanding regarding gold and gold’s role as a diversification, a store of wealth and a wealth preservation asset.

Some continue to focus solely on gold’s price and not its value as a diversification for investors and savers. Many have been suggesting that gold is a bubble for a number of years and few have ever admitted how wrong they were with regard to predictions that gold prices would fall sharply.



Whether gold is a bubble or not is not the fundamental question. What is far more important is that there is now a large body of academic and independent research showing gold is a safe haven asset. Numerous academic studies have proved gold’s importance in investment and pension portfolios – for both enhancing returns but more importantly reducing risk.



Conclusion – Gold in 2013


Some market participants and non gold experts tend to focus on the daily fluctuations and “noise” of the market and not see the “big picture” major change in the fundamental supply and demand situation in the gold markets.



This is particularly due to investment demand from high net worth individuals, from hedge funds, from China, the rest of an increasingly wealthy Asia and of course creditor nation central banks. Macroeconomic, systemic, geopolitical and monetary risks have abated somewhat but remain and could intensify rapidly in 2013. 



The eurozone debt crisis is far from over and will become an issue again in the coming months as will debt crisis’ in Japan, the UK and the U.S.



Support for the price of gold should also come from the rising global money supply coupled with increasing investor and central bank purchases which have been driven by falling real interest rates and concerns about the euro, the dollar and other fiat currencies as stores of value.

Tighter monetary policies, as seen in the late 1970s, would likely help alleviate fears of further currency debasement but it is extremely unlikely that this will be seen in 2013. Indeed, ultra loose monetary policies, negative real interest rates, debt monetization, competitive currency devaluations and global currency wars look set to continue – if not intensify. 



Relationship between gold and interest rates

Geopolitical risk remains very underestimated. Geopolitical tensions are particularly evident in the Middle East between Iran and Israel and many western powers.
There are also tensions between western powers and Russia and indeed China and these could intensify in 2013. 



These macroeconomic, systemic, geopolitical and monetary risks are leading to increasing investment and store of value demand from the smart money such as Bill Gross, Jim Rogers, George Soros, Marc Faber and hedge fund managers such as David Einhorn and Kyle Bass.



Prudent pension funds and central banks will continue to diversify into gold.



The precious metals of gold and silver will again be essential diversifications for anyone wishing to protect and grow wealth in what will be a volatile 2013 and in the coming uncertain years.



Owning physical bullion will likely reward in 2013 and in the coming years as it has done in recent years.

What kind of Gold investor are you ? Define your profile and the corresponding strategies

Here’s a sampling of this year’s “gold bug” and what he has to say about precious metals recently. 

Eric Sprott's latest interview with Eric King deals with the 'trench warfare' of investing in gold after the latest FOMC minutes and the dichotomy between paper selling and physical buying of the yellow metal, as well as the recent trend for repatriation of bullion by central banks. As always, if you're at all interested in the precious metals markets, Eric's insight is invaluable.



But institutions, governments, and others are participating, too... 

Central banks around the world bought a total of 351.8 tonnes of gold (11.3 million ounces) in the first nine months of 2012, up 2% from a year ago.

See The World Gold Council Report

Even Argentina added 7 tonnes last year (225,000 ounces), and Colombia 2.3 tonnes (almost 74,000 ounces).

And then there is India...I tire of the reports that proclaim something like, “Indian buying dropped this month!” Let’s be clear about India and gold: Imports have more than doubled in three years (through 2011), and investment demand has climbed almost fivefold. And all this occurred while prices were rising and from a nation that already has a strong cultural predisposition towards the metal. Further, silver demand is taking off: sales have jumped 24% this year over last. 

And of course there’s China. While nothing official has been announced by its central bank, the size of its gold imports and buying habits are mind-boggling.


 Gold, renminbi and the multi-currency reserve system

These data suggest in and of themselves that dips in the gold price are likely being bought — and will continue to be bought — by central banks. They’re not exactly short-term traders. Remember, central banks were net sellers as recently as 2009, so this reversal will likely play out for years. 

Starting at the time of China’s last official announcement, we’d need to add another 2,873 tonnes to China’s “official” holdings, just to account for imports and domestic production alone. That would put China’s current “known” holdings at 3,927 – well above Germany as the second largest gold holding nation in the world.

And do you think Germany’s ears are starting to burn? You betcha! Why do you think we saw that news earlier this year that Germany is auditing its gold holdings and repatriating some of its gold held out of country? It’s all about the Chinese math!

When you start adding up the stealthy, hard-to-track sources of gold – black market gold from Africa and South America (and maybe Iran) exports, global gold mining from semi-national Chinese firms or buyouts, and the idea that China is urging their own citizens to hoard gold – you’ll notice that China’s gold hoard is closer to 7,000 tonnes, or more!



As China aspiresto take the lead politically and economically, it is unlikely to be satisfied with storing its wealth simply inliabilities of other countries.

So what are the consequences and the perspectives for the Chinese currency ? Here are some thoughts by the renowned economist and financial analyst Alasdair Macleod :

Lars Schall: The Yuan in China, there’s now a lot of talk about the Yuan being the next reserve currency and we see the Chinese buying gold like crazy. Do you think they have something in mind with backing up their currency with gold?

Alasdair Macleod: Yes, I do. I think they do have a plan, and we don't know what it is, but we can guess. My starting point in this is that all the Chinese and Russian Marxian economists were taught that capitalism destroys itself. Now, whether you believe that or not isn't the point, but the Chinese economists actually have this in mind. And they can see the dangers of the way the US dollar is going. We must also understand that the dollar is for security reasons not something they want to use for their international trade settlements. Remember that every dollar transaction done in the world is reflected in a bank account in New York. So, the Chinese want to get away from the potential control and the intelligence information that it gives America. They want to use a different settlement medium.

Now, they agreed about 10 years ago with the Russians to set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and the last unsatisfied objective of the SCO is to have a common trade settlement system between the members of the SCO, which at the moment are Russia, China, and the various "stans" in middle-Asia. But interestingly, the next wave of members who will join are India, Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia and Afghanistan (as soon as NATO has left). So you've really got the bulk of Asia's four billion people, and they're going to be settling cross-border trade not with the dollar but with something else. They need to be gold-rich to give confidence to their currencies.I suspect that the Chinese Yuan will play a big role in Asia. What they're doing with Iran is interesting. They're settling net balances in gold, and gold is being re-monetized in that sense.

And I think that China has accumulated a lot more gold than they officially tell us. So they have the potential to use gold as money. I can see gold being re-monetized in the loosest sense for the largest internal market the world has ever seen. Believe me, it's happening now.

L.S.: Okay, let me then connect another thing with this question. Do you think the Chinese will get paid in gold for perhaps helping out in the Euro crisis? So they're helping to prop up the Euro, and they get in turn some of the European gold?

A.M.: I don’t think China is going to get sucked into supporting the Euro, no, I don't see that at all. What I think is possible is they would very much like to cash in Euros for gold. I am sure they would consider taking physical gold as collateral for Eurozone loans. But for now, every time a Eurozone country goes to China and says "We'll be very grateful for some of your money," the Chinese listen very politely and then just show them the door. China is not in that role as they've got enough of their own problems.

A.M.: And look at it also this way, the average European has a standard of living perhaps ten times better than the average Chinese. China is not interested.

L.S.: Let us then talk about the three big stories in gold this year, and I think the one thing out of the different campaigns for repatriation of gold reserves into the respective countries.

A.M.: Yes. That was going to be my overall story for 2012, and that owes much to the work that you have done. Teasing out of the German authorities exactly how much gold they think they have got and where was a great achievement, a journalistic scoop. And what I particularly liked was not only did you manage to do that, but you have encouraged others to do the same thing elsewhere. The journalist in Mexico who has got the Mexican central bank to talk. We now discover from Austria that the bulk of their gold is in England, and not only that, but they earned 300 million Euro in leasing fees. What a mistake to tell us that!

L.S.: Yes, but can you elaborate on this. Why was it a mistake?

A.M.: Well, I think it was a mistake because the sensible thing for a central banker to do when asked questions about this, given that a lot of the gold has probably disappeared through leasing, is actually to say as little as possible. The real reason for having gold as part of your foreign reserves is to have the ultimate protection of it for your country and currency. Are you telling us, central bankers, that you have compromised that role by leasing it with the risk that it won't come back? You know that must be the next question you journalists will ask.

And of course, to that they all clam up. So I think it was a mistake for the Austrian central bank to admit it. And the most recent story has been the Netherlands where it has just been revealed by the central bank after lots and lots of pressure that they have got 50 per cent of their gold in New York, they've got 20 per cent in Canada, 20 per cent in London and 10 per cent — only 10 per cent — in Amsterdam.

L.S.: So we come to the question, what is a gold reserve. I would say a gold reserve is gold that you have in your possession and at your disposal at any time?

A.M.: Yes, a central banker has actually got to be able to go down into the basement, into the strong room, and count it.

It's as simple as that.
*** GOLD SWITZERLAND / LINK