Dive Into the Chinese Stars and Spangles.

LOUIS VUITTON EXPRESS INTO SHANGHAI

If there were any doubts that Shanghai was the ‘Paris of the East’ they were surely dismissed last week as Louis Vuitton (LV) took over the city last week.  LV banners lined the streets, massive LV billboards beamed from buildings, newspaper covers were dedicated to the brand,  and entire skyscrapers lit up with LV animations and logos with the arrival of the Louis Vuitton Express in Shanghai.

Why all the pomp and dazzle? It was all the to celebrate the opening of LV’s biggest China store in Shanghai’s Plaza 66 Mall. Each Vuitton store is classified according to size, location and merchandise, with the Plaza 66 store now being one of only 16 Maison stores around the world. 

When the Hermès Carré gets married to the Mao collar

One morning of last week, having digested my tea, I went to the newsstand to buy China Daily. Its reading is very advantageous, no both on plan of information and on training of the rudiments of organised disinformation.

Instead of a newspaper, I had the right to a five columns ad. The title, subtitles and photo all had practically disappeared to leave the place in:

To give you an idea of my astonishment, imagine that french newspaper Liberation makes its headline for Hermès carré.

This advertising made noise. On one hand due to the display of an ostentatious luxury in a daily general public, on the other hand because it is about the biggest department store Louis Vuitton in China. This passion for the luxury has even made recently the top story in the Daily of the People (http://renminbao.com/), "why do Chineses so much love Louis Vuitton?" And really, I could determine a true frenzy for the luxury here.

A market which grows by 25 % a year

After these some lines, you will know which groups will use the explosion of this market.

Last year, a study of the financial group CLSA centered on the Pacific region had come to reinforce the idea that the luxury in China was just an eldorado, even more sustainable. While the market of ordinary consumption had to grow by 11 % a year, one expects up 25 % a year over five next years for the luxury.

This frenzy had naturally been followed by the biggest brands. For the only year of 2011, Gucci had opened 12 shops, and should open 10 of more this year.

However the sector noticed a slight slowing down of activity this year, in the wake of worldwide slowing down. The market should grow only by 20 % this year, against 30 % the last year. Burberry announces online results with this forecast over period September-March.

By looking at the fundamental of the market, they however do not doubt that the Chinese market is promised to a big future.

China remains a promised land for the luxury goods

Several reasons are going to be conjugated in years to come to support the two-figure growth of the market:

• The Asian markets should rebound faster after worldwide slowing down
• China is lowering taxes to the importation of luxury products
• The transition towards an economy of consumption will assure a boom in the market
• On the contrary, this transition is going to transform the market. Only the most reactive groups will be able to use it.

The Chinese luxury, from "Guanxi" in the market of mass cnsumption

Growth of the luxury goods in China is really assured, while the Chinese protectionism in relation to this sector begins being reduced.

Last March, the former minister of Trade Wei Jianguo announced that '"there will be at least two rounds of reduction [of import taxes] this year on a big number of products". The luxury is one of the big sectors aimed by this measure.

But if this fall of taxes and a probable economic recovery are going to support the market, the increasing power of mass consumption is going to transform this sector in depth. According to the magazine ParisTech, the market of the luxury in China was carried until now by very different social groups:

The tradition of "Guanxi"

It is about the social group which "cultivates" its relationships by giving luxurious presents.

The women

After the group of the "second women", that is to say the mistresses covered with presents by persons high in power, the sector is carried more and more by the larger group of the women, who acquire more and more a financial autonomy.

The tourists

Here even, I met a French tourist of Asian origin, driver of taxi in Paris, who asked the representative for the hotel where was the closest Louis Vuitton shop to bring back presents in France.

White collars

It is this category which is going to make happy the groups best installed in China. It is on one hand about the biggest category, and which will consume mainly in China.

According to Goldman Sachs, it is the emerging Chinese middle class that should support the growth of the market of the luxury goods in China from 12 % currently, to 30 % in 2015. Because remember, this one still represents only 13 % in the Chinese Society.

It is the continue growth of this category that brings some changes in the market. Products have to fit to these new Chinese customers who, if they remain fascinated by the picture of Western brands, they are not none the less Chinese and Asian.

How to benefit from this evolution? 

Stories on the mistakes of the Western groups in China are legion. The case of Giorgio Armani is daring. At the opening of its shop at the beginning of 2000s, the group had thought it would be good to put a huge red varnished wooden door at the entrance. The door was quickly withdrawn in front of protests. The clients did not want a "chinesed"luxury store , they wanted the luxury of Milan.

Today, the market changed. His evolutions make that foreign actors of the luxury industry have to strike a balance between their Western image and Asiatic tastes. So Bulgari decided to promote the oriental side, by putting forward the collection Serpenti. Also, the watchmaker Piaget got involved in the celebrations of the year of the dragon.

Other groups try to target new customers. So Gucci tries for some times to aim atmen and kids customers.

My advice

As the president of PPR, François Pinault, declared last Tuesday that his group was buying back a Chinese Brand. At the same time, Hermès is developing a "chinesed" brand of ready-to-wear clothes, Shang Xia. That is why I recommend you to keep an eye on title PPR.

For the most adventurous, a mark can be even more beneficial. It is about the jeweller Chow Tai Fook. In trouble on the market of Hong Kong currently, the jeweller has however a huge network of points of sales divided in 320 cities. This title will give you a better exhibition in the luxury market in Asia.

Confucius had Entered Louis Vuitton Store!

Mao was joined in the square by a figure of at least equal repute in China: Confucius. Born in 551 BC, the sage, as he is known, left behind a set of teachings as influential as any the world has known. These teachings became the basis of state ideology by the 2nd century BC, and remained so, with some ups and downs, for more than two millenniums. But with the opening decades of the 20th century, prominent intellectuals and political figures took aim at Confucian teachings, arguing that they were in large part responsible for China's backwardness and weakness relative to the West.            

                                                     

Mao in particular disliked what he believed to be the enduring effects of Confucius' "feudal" practices on the people and, during the Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976, called on the Red Guards to destroy texts, temples, sites and statues throughout China associated with Confucius. No small irony then that, suddenly, in early January, a 17-ton statue of the sage appeared in front of the north gate of the newly renovated National Museum of China — facing Mao's 15-by-20-foot visage hanging above the Tiananmen Gate.

Now, if Mao himself wasn't agitated, his loyal supporters apparently were. Confucius, after all, was an affront to all that Mao had stood — and fought — for. Consequently, Confucius, all 17 tons of him, disappeared on April 20, as suddenly and mysteriously as he had appeared three months earlier. No one has yet come forward with a formal explanation of the statue's comings and goings, but pundits assume, no doubt rightly, that Confucius' appearance and disappearance represent behind-the-scenes political jockeying between different camps within the leadership.

So, Confucius has exited the square. Enter Louis Vuitton. 

The French luxury goods company has taken up a perch almost exactly where the bronze Confucius had been set down. But rather than outside the north entrance of the National Museum, Louis Vuitton is inside the National Museum. Next to rare porcelain vases and bronze vessels, in a four-room exhibition, are LV luggage and handbags dating to the 1860s, reminding museum-goers of all the luxury the Chinese missed out on after the country's fall from power in the mid-19th century. Clever marketing, especially in a country where the world's high-end brands are all competing for visibility among a newly consumerist population.

The question that comes to mind is this: Confucius has been chased from Mao's square, but can Louis Vuitton, the representative of capitalist luxury and wasteful consumption, be any more palatable to the chairman? Is Louis' presence there preferable to the sage's?

Some Chinese, among them no doubt Mao's followers, have expressed displeasure with a Louis Vuitton show in a Chinese historical museum, of all places. Stores are one thing — there are now 27 Louis Vuitton shops in China — but a spot in the fabulously renovated National Museum in one of the world's most historically rich squares?

Gold : from the Situation Room

Money Is Technology!

Money, although most people don’t view it as such, is technology.

Money is a human abstraction. Money is an idea that’s harnessed to certain standards. For example, archaeologists tell us that primitive societies used colored stones, seashells or pieces of bone as money. 

Then for much of human history (including now, depending where you are), mankind used gold, silver and copper as money. In the 13th century, Kublai Khan introduced what some consider the first paper currency (the “chao”) throughout China — an idea that Marco Polo brought back to Europe.

The point is that across the ages, money is a construct — an invented tool — whether it’s seashells, gold, paper currency or even digital ones and zeros on a mobile device app.

Another way of viewing it is that money is an agreed-upon standard. Money is like time zones, where it’s the same time to the east, west, north and south. Money is like a standard unit of measurement, where a pound of steel weighs the same as a pound of feathers. Or money is like the width of railway gauge, so that rail cars from one railroad can run on the tracks of another railroad.

Thus, money is, at root, technology as much as any other basic machine like the wedge, lever or wheel. And along with other basic machines, the idea of money has evolved over many thousands of years of human history.

Today, Kublai Khan’s Chinese “chao” have evolved into modern U.S. Federal Reserve notes, as well as the multitude of other world currencies, from pounds to euros to yuan and much more.

When Money Breaks Down…

Now, I’d like you to consider what happens when a system of money — a system of technology — doesn’t work, or just breaks down. It brings to mind an old expression from the Soviet Union, that “They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work.”

In other words, the Soviet Union was a society with a centrally planned command economy. The system of account, exchange and value was geared for the good of the state, but not much geared for the overall good of the people.

Over time, the currency — the Soviet ruble — ceased being much good for anything. Indeed, the ruble was a dodgy unit of account, a poor medium of exchange and a problematic store of value. Basically, there was little to buy in the Soviet command economy, and the Soviet people behaved accordingly. Their “money” (such as it was) shaped their attitudes.

The Soviets may have had good technology when it came to things like building tanks, rockets and nuclear bombs. But the Soviet economy failed to deliver for the good of the people. Eventually, the Soviet ruble was an economic technology that failed — along with the national construct known as the Soviet Union.

The Best Time-Tested Technology: Precious Metals…Silver

Looking ahead, I’m concerned with the trajectory of U.S. governance and the future of the economy. But I don’t anticipate that the U.S. federal system will somehow collapse, like what happened with the Soviet Union — although I’m willing to have that talk at another time and place.

Still, for the life of me, I cannot envision how the U.S. will avoid more inflation. Federal spending is out of control, and the economy is struggling to gain traction.

I don’t see how U.S. “monetary technology” — the dollar — can hold its value over the long haul. Next to moving out of the country to Singapore (like Jim Rogers, for instance), my fallback position is to keep building a precious metal portfolio based on physical metal and investing in well-run miners.

Along with gold, every portfolio should have exposure to silver.

Indeed, if you don’t own physical silver — coins, small ingots, bars, etc. — then get some! Buy metal and take delivery. I’ve been saying that for a number of years, since silver was selling at $10 per ounce. Don’t dwell over the near-term ups and downs. Silver is your safety fund for if (or when) the wheels come off the economic bus.

The recent silver selloff is due to turn around — silver is currently selling in the range of $27 per ounce. That’s far above the historical lows of $5-10 per ounce from the early 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s. But it’s also far down from the high over $45 last year.

Silver has a long, steadfast history as money, going back to ancient times. Yet it’s also a substance with a promising future, thanks to its critical role as an industrial-technological metal. Aside from the traditional uses as money, silver has innumerable uses in electronics, medicine and other metallurgical applications.

In the past several years, silver prices have moved due to demand driven by investors. Silver appeals, along with gold, as a safe (at least, safer) haven as an investment in times of economic uncertainty. Like now.

Money is technology. Many modern currencies are a failing technology. It’s time to get back to basics, and that means silver.

Byron King

Gold Is Nearing the Breaking Point

Looking to time your next purchase of gold? There’s no time like the present: The ideal seasonal “window” for gold purchases opened yesterday.

The annual Thackray’s Investor’s Guide attempts to pinpoint the best times of year in which to buy various asset classes. The 2012 edition notes, according to Canada’s Globe and Mail, “the optimal time to invest in gold bullion for a seasonal trade is from July 12-Oct. “We believe that ultimately the Fed will be forced to do quantitative easing,” the firm’s commodities research chief Francisco Blanch tells CNBC. “If it happens in September, as our economists expect, we will get a rally sooner in gold.”

For the past couple months, the yellow metal has been stuck in a trading range between about $1,550 and $1,625. But that range has been tightening, and gold has been storing up energy for another big move. That move could happen as early as next week.

Take a look at this chart of gold…

Gold is approaching the apex of its triangle pattern. That's the breaking point – where the metal either breaks out to the upside of the pattern or breaks down. Either way, there's the potential for a $140 move in either direction. And based on the chart, it could happen in the next couple weeks.

Frankly, I'd love to see the metal break down here and give us a chance to buy it near $1,450 per ounce or lower. But I'm starting to doubt we'll get that lucky.

With all the recent talk about a global recession, deflationary pressures, and Bernanke's testimony to Congress last week that he does not want a third round of quantitative easing… gold has had plenty of reasons to drop in price. But it's been holding steady above the $1,550 support zone. Maybe we won't get a chance to buy it at as huge a discount as I'd hoped.

There is a big move coming, though, and here's how I plan to trade it…

If gold breaks out to the downside of the triangle and loses support at $1,550, I'll look to buy the metal somewhere around $1,450 or lower. That will be the best gold-buying opportunity we've seen in years.

On the other hand, if gold breaks out to the upside and rallies above last month's high of $1,625, forget about buying it on sale. Just buy it. Gold will have entered "rally mode," and will likely challenge its February high above $1,775.

Either way this plays out, there's big opportunity ahead in gold.

Gold Miners are cheap, cheap, cheap !

Gold mining shares deserve their own discussion. I am bullish on gold without qualification. I am also bullish on gold miners…but with one very large qualification: they must produce positive cash flow.

I think the bull market in gold is intact. And I think gold prices will make highs within a year.

However, gold stocks have done poorly. Few have been spared. Like the other mining companies, they suffer from the same affliction: an eager willingness to take whatever cash they generate and dump it right back into the ground.

So even though the four largest listed gold miners — Goldcorp, Barrick, Newmont and Newcrest — generated $47.5 billion in operating cash flows in the last decade, they spent $62.5 billion in new mines, acquisitions and other capital expenditures. The big four have made no money in one of the greatest gold bull markets on record. In fact, they’ve lost money.

How did they make up this deficit? They sold more shares to the ever-gullible public — always a sucker for a good story about buried treasure. The number of shares outstanding rose 117% in the decade.

I’ve railed before about the management of gold miners. And I’ve tried to find gold miners in which the management teams do intelligent things. But it is hard. Even when you think you have found a team that says all the right things and looks as if it can do it, it does stuff that makes you scratch your head.

Aurizon Mines (Symbol: AZK. Price $4.43), for instance, is a wonderful miner. It generates plenty of cash. It has nearly $200 million in cash in the bank and no debt. But where is the payoff for shareholders? There is no dividend, no share buyback. Despite record revenues and cash margins, AZK’s cash balance is actually 7% lower than a year ago — again, because they put it all back in the ground. The share price is down almost 10% year over year. And this has been one of the better-performing mining stocks!

It’s very frustrating…

Still, price-to-cash-flow multiples have fallen to generational lows. During the last two decades, the XAU Index of gold mining stocks traded, on average, for 14 times cash flow. Today, the XAU is selling for less than 7 times cash flow, which is very close to its all-time low. So with smaller miners that produce cash flow, you have the chance of a good bounce to something closer to historical norms. The best case is a buyout by one of those free-spending bigger gold companies.

Li(e)bor Scandal : Infographic For Dummies

Infographic for Dummies

Since (at least) 2005, Barclays has been manipulating LIBOR, and their traders have been allegedly pocketing $40MM a day betting on interest rate derivatives. If the LIBOR, one of the most fundamental metrics of our banking system can be rigged, can you imagine what other elements of our financial system are a fraud? This morning's comments from European regulators appears to confirm that this story has a long way to go as ECB's Almunia states: "The evidence we have collected is quite telling so I am pretty sure this investigation will not be closed without results."


Via: HealthcareAdministration.com

Black Swan

Quotes from N.N. Taleb "The Black Swan"

We think these quotes fit perfectly to our blog

This fools us into thinking someone (an ‘expert’) might be able to predict the next Black Swan, which in itself increases the chances of another one catching us unawares in the  future. 


and our fav video 

BE CURIOUS

Chronique des marchés émergents : Chine

A la conquête de l’ouest… chinois

Si John Wayne était né dans les années 2000, il serait chinois. D’abord l’esprit aventurier. Ne comptez pas sur des routes de bonnes qualités si vous voulez quitter l’est, et encore moins sur un train qui parte à l’heure. Il serait également précieux pour approcher les populations locales. En Chine, les Indiens ont laissé la place aux minorités ethniques comme les Ouïghours dans le nord-ouest, ou les Miaos dans le sud-ouest. Enfin, le moral en fer forgé de John Wayne ne sera pas de trop pour s’attaquer aux errements financiers de certaines municipalités chinoises.

© DR

Car oui, la Chine est en train de se lancer à la conquête de l’ouest. Le développement des régions du centre, du nord et de l’ouest chinois figure au coeur de son 12e plan quinquennal 2011-2012. Et les premiers résultats commencent à apparaître. Ces régions continentales, parfois enclavées, où des villes de 30 millions d’habitants dormaient paisiblement, sont en train de connaître des croissances à deux chiffres. 

Voir notre présentation sur la route de la soie et l'Ouest chinois http://scr.bi/Qf3Ymg

A l’heure où l’on glose abondamment sur la fin du “miracle chinois”, de nouveaux eldorados se rappellent à nous. Pour essayer d’y voir plus clair, je me suis replongé dans l’histoire de la croissance chinoise. Après cette courte plongée historique, je vous conseillerai les secteurs qui profiteront de cette nouvelle ruée vers l’ouest.

L’Asie joue au billard depuis 40 ans

L’Asie est la seule région où des pays ont réussi sur les 50 dernières années à se hisser aux niveaux de richesse des pays développés. Cette croissance a été construite sur un facteur en particulier : le coût du travail.

Je suis arrivé en Chine en apportant avec moi les mémoires de Zhao Ziyang. Cet homme politique a été Premier ministre pendant les années 1980, période où s’est construite la croissance chinoise. Economiquement (et politiquement) libéral, il avait la confiance du père du modèle chinois actuel, Deng Xiaoping.

Un chapitre entier est consacré aux premières années de son gouvernement. L’ancien Premier ministre explique qu’historiquement, les pays développés ont été amenés à déplacer leurs industries vers les régions où le coût du travail était faible. Voici ce qu’il écrit : “du point de vue asiatique, ce sont d’abord les Etats-Unis qui ont délocalisé leurs industries à main-d’oeuvre vers le Japon [...] Puis les Etats-Unis et le Japon ont délocalisé une partie de leurs industries de fabrication vers les “quatre petits dragons” (Taiwan, la Corée, Hong Kong et Singapour), qui se sont développés à leur tour. Le mouvement s’est ensuite déplacé vers les pays de l’ASEAN” (Malaise, Indonésie, Philippines, Singapour, et Thaïlande).

Et le Premier ministre chinois continue en expliquant que ce mouvement “n’allait pas s’arrêter, et qu’il représentait une occasion à saisir”. La Chine l’a saisi, et a vu son PIB être multiplié par 18 entre 1980 et 2010.

Aujourd’hui, le phénomène se déplace à nouveau. Non pas vers un autre pays, mais vers l’ouest du pays.

La croissance n’est pas à gauche, elle est à l’ouest !

Le balancier est en train de s’inverser entre l’est et l’ouest. Alors que les régions du Guangdong, le Jiangsu et le Zhejiang, toutes à l’est, ont connu une croissance de 10% en 2011, une ville comme Chong Qing, au centre, a connu 16,4% de croissance.

30 ans après, le centre est ainsi en train de reproduire le modèle de croissance des régions côtières. C’est vers ces régions que convergent actuellement les industries textiles ou de la petite électronique, industries grosses consommatrices de travail.

Comme il y a 30 ans à l’est, les besoins en matières premières, infrastructures, transports sont encore énormes. Et ceux-ci restent encore largement ignorés. Danny Quah, professeur d’économie à la London School of Economics, soulignait en mars dernier que “beaucoup d’étrangers qui admirent les hauts gratte-ciels des villes de l’est ne savent pas que certains villages éloignés dans l’ouest de la Chine n’ont pas de connexion avec le réseau routier ou au réseau d’électricité“.

Ce développement va rapidement attirer les multinationales qui, il y a 30 ans, se sont ruées le long du littoral chinois.

Trois secteurs en particulier profiteront de cette croissance à venir de l’ouest.

General Steel Holding

La semaine dernière, j’ai rencontré un des dirigeants d’une importante compagnie chinoise d’acier cotée sur le NYSE, General Steel Holding. Pour John Chen, son directeur financier, il n’y a pas de doute, l’avenir de l’acier n’est plus à l’est.

Comme il me l’explique, les villes qui connaissent les plus fortes croissances actuellement sont “Xi’an, Cheng Du, Chong Qing… et même des villes de deuxième catégorie comme Yulin ou Erdos“. Toutes sont situées au centre, à l’ouest ou au nord du pays.

Poids plume par rapport aux géants que sont Baosteel, General Steel a pourtant réussi à tirer son épingle du jeu. Comme il me l’explique, “nous avons formé une joint-venture avec Shaanxi Longmen Iron & Steel et Shaanxi Coal [le Shaanxi est une des importantes régions charbonnières] afin d’être capable de fournir les marchés des régions du centre“. General Steel s’est ainsi rapproché des nouveaux centres de croissance de la demande d’acier.

Car c’est bien la construction qui va profiter en premier lieu de la croissance de ces régions. Et dans son sillage, c’est le marché du fer, absorbé à 40% par le bâtiment, qui va repartir.

L’ouest construit désormais en dur

Alors que le marché de l’acier a reculé ces six derniers mois, les analystes s’attendent à une reprise cet été. Ce rebond sera notamment soutenu par l’avancée de plusieurs travaux d’infrastructures dans ces régions.

Cet optimisme sur le marché de l’acier est partagé par exemple par le centre d’analyse Gavekal. Celui-ci indique que “l’immobilier soutiendra la demande d’acier dans les trois prochains mois. Cela indique que la demande touchera un point bas par rapport à l’an dernier à la mi-2012, et connaîtra 15% de croissance en fin d’année”.

Corrélation des ventes immobilières et de la demande d’acier

Sur le graphique ci-dessus, la ligne rouge fait apparaître la demande prévisionnelle et vous constatez qu’elle se redresse pour la fin de 2012.

Et dans les années à venir, un deuxième secteur lié aux métaux reprendra du tonus, l’exploitation minière.

La Chine met en valeur ses ressources minières

“Vampire du milieu” pour certains, la Chine n’est en pas moins bien dotée en ressources naturelles. Le problème, c’est que ces ressources sont difficiles d’accès. Les régions minières sont pour la plupart situées à l’ouest, dans des espaces montagneux ou désertiques.

C’est pourquoi le développement de l’ouest va permettre de désenclaver ces zones. Le gouvernement a ainsi lancé en 2011 un vaste plan de mise en valeur des ressources minières. D’ailleurs, le gouvernement n’a pas le choix. Le ministère des Terres et Ressources vient d’annoncer que sur 45 métaux analysés, la Chine pourrait avoir des difficultés d’approvisionnements pour 25 d’entre eux d’ici 2020.

Une région en particulier est en train de faire le bonheur des investisseurs, le Yunnan. Selon Li Lianju, membre du ministère des Terres et Ressources, “entre 2010 et 2020, encore 500 tonnes d’or et 200 milliards de m3 de gaz non-conventionnel devraient être produits [dans cette région]“.

Le plus intéressant pour nous, c’est que les investissements étrangers commencent à être les bienvenus dans les mines chinoises. Certains noms d’autres contrées sont en train d’émerger dans le secteur minier. Ainsi le canadien Asia Now Resources a fait une entrée remarquée dans les mines d’or. Vous pouvez retrouver la cotation de cette petite minière sur le Toronto Stock Exchange.

Le transport connectera l’ouest à l’est

Enfin, rien ne sera possible sans un solide réseau de transport. Ni la construction ni l’exploitation minière ne décolleront sans être reliées aux régions de la côte. Or les besoins sont gigantesques. Le plan de développement des régions de l’ouest couvre 6,85 millions de km2, ou 71% du territoire chinois !

Les premiers programmes d’infrastructures doivent s’étendre jusqu’en 2015. Ainsi, 15 000 km de voies ferrées seront construites dans les régions de l’ouest d’ici cette date. Le secteur autoroutier devrait également prendre son essor, renforçant la demande d’acier.

Mon conseil

Comme le résumait début juillet le Financial Times, “la plupart des officiels et des investisseurs sont convaincus que le pays a besoin d’injecter d’importants capitaux, notamment dans les routes, les aéroports, les usines et les logements”.

La différence avec les 10 ans d’investissement que nous venons de vivre, c’est que le gouvernement chinois ne veut pas reproduire les mêmes gaspillages. Ce n’est pas un hasard si le pont de Qingdao est devenu un des symboles de ce galvaudage. Pont le plus long du monde, il est également un des moins fréquentés. Et pourtant Qingdao est une ville côtière.

© DR

Photo du pont de Qingdao

Ainsi, le développement de l’ouest chinois devrait soutenir la demande en matières premières, mais à un rythme moindre que ces 10 dernières années. Les autorités devraient davantage contrôler les investissements. Et les compagnies s’y préparent.

General Steel sait bien que la période d’euphorie des 10 dernières années est finie. Comme me l’explique John Chen, “si les volumes sont toujours là, les marges se sont réduites“. C’est pour cela que la principale préoccupation de la compagnie dans les prochains mois sera de “continuer à réduire ses coûts de production“.

Avec le rebond de l’acier attendu, General Steel pourrait représenter un pari intéressant.

source : publications-agora.fr/