The collapse of the euro zone is a main source or worry, more than the elimination of the Greek team by the Mannschaft in the Championship of Europe ? We played the game!
You may know, Germany meeting Greece team in the quarterfinals of the football Euro this Friday. If the Germany wins, one will say that the best has won and that the Greece has already made it good in qualifying for the quarterfinals. If the Greece prevails, one will celebrate the debtor nation which might may repeat the coup of 2004. This is for football. Except that a more important match has already started since 2009, and is being played in the economic field.
At Investlogic we give you the keys.
Angela Merkel: German Chancellor is a unconditional of the Catenaccio. Her economic policy is governed by the moderation and caution.
Georges Papandreou: He is the Prime Minister of the Greece for most of the match from October 2009 to November 2011. Often disputed by his opponents as by his compatriots, he might one day be rehabilitated as the man who dared to do the dirty work.
Loukas Papadimos: The successor to Papandreou was Governor of the Greek Central Bank between 1994 and 2002. As such, he participated in the rigging of the accounts of his country.
Heating starts between 2000 and 2008 and looks like the fable of the Cigal and the Ant. At that time, borrowing rates were very low in Europe. Countries can go into debt at low cost. Good news for the Greece (but also the Spain, the Italy, the France...) which does not fail to use the loans to import products and boost its economy. It is also very good news for the Germany. Not only the country resorted to borrowing at low rates, but increasingly it takes advantage of this trend with its economy heavily oriented towards exports. This prosperous period causes a large increase in wages across Europe. But ONE country decides to block the increase within its borders: the Germany. The difference in competitiveness hence is widening for the Germany, which exports more while others import more.
Key moments of the game
The crisis is seriously evil cycle governing the functioning of the eurozone during the warm-up. The axe falls on October 4, 2009. When he won the legislative elections, Georges Papandreou, Greek Socialist Party leader, revealed that the previous Government has made up the public accounts with the help of the bank Goldman Sachs. The deficit amounts to 12% of GDP, twice more announced previously. The markets believe more in the capacity of the Greece to repay its loans. This is the beginning of the match.
First quarter of the game
The Germany first refuses to help at the Greece. In full transition to political vacuum, Chancellor Angela Merkel opposed strongly. Of tackling assassins, worthy of a Cyril Rool, Swish: "Athens must solve its problems alone," balance Merkel, soon followed by liberal MP Frank Schaffler which casts her: "It does not help an alcoholic by giving him a new bottle of brandy still.". The German Minister of Economy hit the blow by announcing that his Government will not pay "a penny" for Greece.
32nd minute: 1-0 for the Greece
Coup de theatre following Sunday. On April 11, 2010, the European Union agrees finally on a plan of 30 billion euros, at the Greek request and despite the reluctance of the Germany. Two weeks later, the assistance plan is even widely revised upward. The 135 billion euros. The international monetary fund will put hand in his pocket, never seen before in Europe.
35th minute. Equalization of the Germany
The formalization of the plan, may 7, 2010, recalled that this aid will not be a blank check to the Greece. First the Greece will have to reimburse at a rate of 5%. Then, many counterparties are required. Officials lose their 13th and 14th month salary, already 21% VAT is increased by 2%, the retirement age was repulsed, the budgets of the departments are revised downward... Protests engulfed the country, three people died in the fire of a bank caused by a Molotov cocktail.
The two teams join the locker room on a score of parity. During the break, the game continues out of the arena: agencies degrade the note by the Greece, austerity measures accumulate, the State of health of the population is deteriorating, Greeks strike and demonstrate.
Early in the second period
In March 2011, new sum game zero between the Greece and its creditors. It engages in pain to accelerate the rigour, and in return Gets the loans interest rates lower, and an extension of their. But very quickly, each becomes aware that it will not be enough.
First quarter in second half. 2 2
The second half continues on a terrible stock market crisis, in summer 2011. Index falls from day to day, pulled down by banking values. one has to determine in emergency a second aid plan. The Germany offers "a fair sharing of the burden between taxpayers and private investors." By and large, reduce the Greek debt. In Exchange, the creditors will be able to have more control on the fiscal policy of the country. The decision is posted on July 21, 2011.
60th minute: 3-2 for the Germany
In September, the European threaten Athens not to install the sixth part of the assistance decided in May 2010 plan. Athens is forced to a yet another austerity plan. New reduction of benefits, reduced the number of civil servants, new taxes on real estate.
70th minute: red card for Papandreou
After a new week of strikes and harsh demonstrations, on 27 October, Europe validates a new plan and a new debt reduction Greek. Prime Minister Georges Papandreou has yet not new as a blessing. Berlin has set very strict aid conditions considered an infringement of the sovereignty of the country. Papandreou proposes to submit this support in a referendum, before renouncing it under pressure from its European neighbours. Disavowed, he resigned and was replaced by Loukas Papadimos.
80th minute: 4-2
An umpteenth plan of austerity is decided: new increases of tax, falling wages of employees, reduction in the number of employees in the public sector. Lower salaries, reduction in the number of officials, new taxes... The forums empty: in Greece, the young are more tempted by exile.
85th minute: 5-3
These successive plans do not fill the creditors. "The promises of Greece are not enoughsufficient for us." "They should first implement the parts of the former program of austerity and saving”, said the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble.
In January and February, the creditors impose new measures on the Greece. On 10 February, the Government accepts new tax increases, a reduction of the minimum wage by 22% and superannuation, new privatization... In this context, the suicide of a 77-year-old man, who is fires a bullet in the head in the central square of Athens says a lot about the State of the country. A new assistance plan, is voted on 21 February.
In both games, the Greeks play with nerves of the public. In a first election, on 6 may, the Conservatives new democracy (pro-austerite) and the coalition of the radical left (Syriza, anti-austerite) are elbow-to-elbow. A second vote is organized on 17 June. New democracy prevails on a wire. Austerity can continue.
Review of the game:
Greece is lead on score: more austerity plans than of European aid. She is accused of not implementing all of its reform and Germany threatens its sovereignty. It is impossible to designate a winner. The crisis will certainly plays additional time.