people in motion

people in motion

vendredi 24 août 2012

Kondratieff : Generational Analytics

Game Over

If the cycles of the past century continue to repeat, most of the first decade (or more) of this century will experience a secular bear market – an extended period of generally down or sideways and choppy stock market conditions....That is what we propose to review in this presentation according to several technical approaches

As we are in a high risk / high volatility period typical of some secular cycle changes and long term bear markets  we proposed this presentation few weeks ago, rather it was a discussion about the fundamental forces that drive economic, financial and social environment and stock market returns. Even though it is challenging to predict the market over months and quarters or even a few years, we believe the presentation shows that the general environment (for some basic behavioral reasons we shall be glad to discuss) over some longer periods. Those periods are the secular stock market cycles of above-average bulls and below-average bears. These cycles generally take a generation to work their way through the investor public, have significant magnitudes of becoming undervalued and overvalued, and have significant implications for the way that investors should approach each of these periods. 
The short-term, somewhat random, market gyrations are the result of then-current circumstances and market forces wrestling stock prices around a gravity line of the broader cyclical trend.
Finally, we will make a connection between money printing, gold, US dollar and stocks that will give us further indications of the direction of the stock and bond market in the coming decade.

Point break A LT Technical Analysis Approach by investlogic 

Fill your bowl to the brim and it will spill.  Keep sharpening your knife and it will blunt.  Chase after money and security and your heart will never unclench.  Care about people’s approval and you will be their prisoner.  Do your work, then step back.  The only path to serenity.
- Tao Te Ching


Peter Baxter, President of Baxter Capital Advisors, will explain why he thinks we are in a Kondratieff Winter and where the economy is headed based on this theory.

(start at 2:00 min)

Kondratieff Wave theory details how global and regional capitalist economies experience a recurring cycle pattern of boom and bust of around 60 years that coincides with a peak in credit *. We talk to Peter Baxter about the components of each of the four cycle seasons (Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall), and how each season exhibits the same unique characteristics. Once credit has peaked in the cycle, it must be choked off so that the excesses from the previous cycle can be removed. We will talk about how he foresees the Winter cycle playing out, as well as why the mainstream media has largely ignored Kondratieff Wave theory. 


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