people in motion

people in motion
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est Interest Rates. Afficher tous les articles
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est Interest Rates. Afficher tous les articles

lundi 17 juin 2013

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism


 US Monetary Transmission Mechanism 


From a presentation by Jonathan McCarthy of the NY Fed .back in March.   Neither the Fed funds target nor the change of reserves directly impact aggregate demand.   



McCarthy identifies six channels by which monetary policy changes can indirectly impact demand:  interest rats, exchange rates, wealth effect, balance sheet, bank lending and portfolio balance. 



ECB Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism


And how the ECB understands the transmission mechanism of its monetary policy.  




A compare and contrast essay of the two is stuff that a dissertation is made of.  For our purposes here, note that the output for the ECB is price developments.  For US monetary policy it is aggregate demand.  

Many of the components and factors are indeed the same, though the Federal Reserve has a more significant role for policy communication and commitment.  

Perhaps from another perspective, the US transmission mechanism is about what policy can do, while the ECB's transmission mechanism seems more to do with the limits of monetary policy.  

Hear the Bond Markets Howl


What to expect ?

Erratic and irrational behavior in the markets puzzled lots of investors.  To understand these patterns and what to expect here some thoughts.



“Thinking About Thinking?”

“Thinking, good thinking that is, is a lonely sport. This may explain why so many of us do it so poorly. Good thinking is also an inefficient process. It takes a lot of thinking to come up with those few good, new ideas that are clearly worth thinking about – ideas that can be exploited in the marketplace. Particularly, as often accurately noted in 1912, ‘Most coming events cast their shadow before, and it is on that intelligent speculation must be based.”

“At the heart of the thinking process is the need to anticipate change correctly, and on a timely basis. Investment thinkers must develop for themselves a model, or systematic perception, as to how markets really work. Those believing strongly in the efficient market hypothesis are, of course, relieved of such undertakings. However, as is becoming increasingly clear, portfolio theory does not fully explain security price movements, either here or abroad, or tell us too much about how to achieve better-than-average performance. Most practitioners of active money management need to improve their thinking procedures.”

... Arthur Zeikel, “On Thinking” (1988)

What does it mean? 

It means that a deep, underground redevelopment, is occurring. He is not apparently seen because currents and force of opposite senses confront one another and fall out, the incidental mingles with the fundamental. 

- The transition in the United States is prepared, the reduction of the purchases of titles, reduction of QE, can be that this reduction will concern the most questioned part, the MBS. 

- Success, success of Japanese politics are doubted, they become nervous 

- They become aware of the unexpected largeness of consequences not wanted of the led monetary policies and contradictions which they carry in them. Of the importance of capital flow and their destabilising character. Perhaps even the myth of the omnipotence of the Central Banks is flaking. 

- A more realistic evaluation on European situation is carried. And, what was put aside during the weeks of speculative euphoria, cost as a boomerang. All the more so as financial status, true, not that of Rajoy or Holland, deteriorates and all the more so as Germany hardens discreetly its conditions of structural reforms. Perhaps that Turkey makes think to the sorcerer's apprentices of social destabilization. 

- They note down the next revision, independent check, strong word is "independent", of balance sheets of the European banks and of the position of Germany which wants that every country audits its situation itself, and makes it at the need by amputating the creditors and agents of banks. 

- They pay attention to the worrying purposes that one neglected until then. 




Two weeks ago, it was Volcker who made a peremptory condemnation of the politics of Bernanke and its phantasms. Some days ago, it was Fisher of EDF of Dallas that demonstrated its disapproval with a barely diplomatic vigour. Then, it was the turn of Esther de la Fed of Kansas City. 

What is not perceptible, and it is the same error as at the time of the crisis of subprimes, it is that very, in reality, in spite of visible diversification, everything is corrélé. The error of the models of risk on subprimes was not to take into account the fact that the subjacent was the same: the accommodation. And that it subjacent, by phenomenon of crowd, could very well follow not linear ways, ways of contagion. 

What is not perceptible in current stage, it is that everything is also corrélé, by means of subjacent discreet who joins all assets, their price, their volatility their risk and it under - ownerless that bursts eyes but which are not seen, it is the currency. 

What is in the middle of any financial transaction, of very market, it is what they receive least, what they want not to see, what the maitres of the world retracts, the currency. We say that opposite force which is in work conceals, distort phenomenon, but we are attending repetition, in the first starts, of a new stage of crisis. New borders are touched.







dimanche 30 décembre 2012

Attrape-niguauds


Bilan prévisionnel

Les marchés achètent 2013 !

Le risque d'implosion de l'euro n'est plus qu'un vieux souvenir...
L'Europe va bientôt sortir de la récession...
La BCE est en mode "injection massive de cash au moindre problème"...
Les marchés US et européens flambent ...                                                 
Les marchés nagent dans le cash. Merci Ben...
Le dollar dope la compétitivité US. Merci Ben...
Les boîtes sont blindées aux AS coté cash

Si la situation "réelle" semble compliquée, les marchés eux achètent l'avenir et en premier lieu 2013. Cette hausse reste en fait très technique.

Les gérants qui ont fait une belle performance sur le marché obligataire voient le potentiel de celui-ci se dégrader. Donc, mécaniquement, la recherche du rendement et donc du risque va bénéficier aux actions. C'est en tout cas le pari de nombreux professionnels qui misent sur le retour des liquidités d'investisseurs étrangers rassurés par le sauvetage de la Grèce et la solidité de l'euro.


Le risque est mort, vive le risque !

Fin de l'année, fin du monde et maintenant fin de la crise, tout le monde y va de sa "fin". Comme si les choses étaient aussi simples. Comme si, l'humanité pouvait parfois tourner une page et passer dans un autre paradigme... comme ça.

Tout va bien dans le meilleur des mondes... le risque est mort, vive le risque !

Eh bien non.

Les analystes s'enchaînent pour se féliciter de voir la Zone euro sauvée. On loue les actions de Mario Draghi et les décisions des dirigeants tous autant qu'ils sont. Et même si l'on admet une certaine lenteur, lourdeur dans les décisions, les choses avancent. Il faudra quand même un jour que les analystes comprennent que les indices boursiers ne reflètent pas la santé de l'économie.

Tout le monde vous dit que l'Europe va sortir de la récession cette année, que tout ira mieux. Je vous conseille de surveiller l'euro. La guerre des monnaies pourrait en décider autrement...

Sur le Forex, euro et livre sterling sont les grands gagnants de la fin d'année avec un dollar australien qui plafonne et qui illustre une réorientation des investisseurs vers le vieux continent.

Sans croissance, pas d'argent.

2013 n'y changera rien, l'économie aura besoin de croissance pour faire baisser le chômage. Tant que le monde sera monde. D'ailleurs le monde non plus n’a pas fini ce 21 décembre. 

Sans argent, le renflouement des budgets restera un casse-tête socialement douloureux et l'apurement des dettes un voeu pieux.

Et s'il faut aller chercher l'argent sur les marchés parce que nous sommes incapables de créer de la richesse par nous-mêmes, nous risquons de retomber sous le joug des spéculateurs et de leurs caprices...

EURUSD : la zone cruciale en approche

L'euphorie ambiante ne doit pas vous faire oublier de prendre du recul. J'ai déjà dans ces lignes fixé des zones claires pour EURUSD.

Nous arrivons proche de ma zone d'invalidation de la tendance baissière long terme.

Un passage confirmé par une clôture hebdomadaire au-dessus de 1,3405 sera pour moi le signal de la fin de la baisse. Avant, nous gardons un biais baissier et le potentiel est très important.

De plus, après tous les efforts fournis pour relancer la machine économique, je ne peux croire que la Zone euro laissera sa devise s'apprécier aussi rapidement et pénaliser les exportations.

Alors pour 2013, le pari sera la baisse de l'euro, mais cette fois-ci, non pas subie, mais voulue par tous les Etats-membres


La Fed et la BoJ jouent la dépréciation monétaire

Le grand bénéficiaire : les marchés actions, et les actifs à risque au sens large qui s'envolent La plus grande victime : l'euro qui s'apprécie méchamment contre yen et dollar.

L'inévitable réaction collatérale : la Chine et la plupart des pays asiatiques. Ces pays exportateurs ne laisseront pas s'apprécier leur monnaie contre yen et dollar, préférant à leur tour "entrer dans la danse du laxisme monétaire" ; voilà qui matraquera un peu plus l'euro au passage ...

Faites vos jeux, rien ne va plus !

Nous allons probablement assister dans les prochains mois à un billard à trois bandes ravageur... Sans compter que d'autres pourraient bien venir se joindre à la partie.
90 - 60 - 90... ça, c'était le tour de taille de la Fed avant 2008. Depuis, l'embonpoint sévit. Le bilan de la Fed est passé de 900 milliards en 2008 à 2 880 milliards aujourd'hui. A quand l'arrêt cardiaque par indigestion de dette américaine ?

Opération Mamouth écrase les taux...

En 2011 la Fed a acheté 77% de la dette US émise par le Trésor. Et aujourd'hui la Fed étend son Twist de 40 milliards de dollars à 85 milliards par mois. Ca nous fait tout de même du 1 000 milliards par an pour "manipuler les taux à sa convenance"...

1 000 000 000 000$... un simple transfert de fonds, vous explique-t-on.


La Fed vend ses obligations d'Etat court terme pour acheter des obligations long terme. Objectif : écraser les taux long pour éviter que l'économie américaine n'étouffe sous le poids de sa dette. Mamouth-Ben écrase les taux...

Que fera la Fed quand elle n'aura plus en portefeuille de Treasuries court terme à vendre pour acheter des obligations long terme?  Sans doute faudra-t-il alors imprimer à nouveau du papier pour renflouer le stock de Treasuries de la Fed ; donc accroître la masse monétaire et déprécier le dollar un peu plus.


Que se passera-t-il le jour où la Fed vendra ses milliers de milliards de titres long terme qu'elle aura acheté et accumulé dans son bilan pendant des mois et des mois ? Les taux long flamberont et la bulle obligataire pourrait bien faire de sérieux ravages, tant le marché sera alors déséquilibré...

Pour l’instant, retenons juste que la Fed est "sur le coup"...
... à 300% ; et aussi longtemps qu'il le faudra. Elle fera tout pour soutenir l'économie américaine et booster l'emploi. Surtout, la Fed n'hésitera pas à enfoncer le dollar autant qu'il le faudra pour arriver à ses fins. Si elle y arrive...

Print , baby, print... 

Telle semble être la devise de Shinzo Abe. Au menu du nouveau Premier ministre japonais : la dépréciation compétitive de son yen pour relancer les exportations de son pays exsangue. 

La BoJ annonçait dès sa prise de pouvoir une nouvelle hausse de son plan d'assouplissement de près de 10 trillions de yens soit près de 10% de hausse. Oui mais voilà, le Japon a un autre souci que la dette, la déflation ou le vieillissement de sa population : c'est la Chine ! Le boycott des produits japonais est appelé à s'intensifier et donc va encore pénaliser la relance économique du Japon.

Ajoutons à cela que le Japon reste le second créanciers des Etats-Unis... vraiment, 2013 va être un grand cru.


lundi 3 décembre 2012

Environmental Analysis and Sovereign Bonds


Notation of Countries : 
Towards a Consideration of the Environmental Risks

While the classic rating agencies continue to focus on the financial debts, some investors want to integrate environmental and social criteria into the notation of Sovereign debt. A way of going out of the ”all financial”?

Launched in 2011 by the partnership of the UN UNEP FI with fifteen international investors and Global Footprint Network (GFN), this initiative proposes a custom-made method to include the environmental risks in the analysis of country risks. The target is a question of filling a weakness of the bond analysis: although the environment infers " emergent systematic risks ", the evaluation stays marginally and no investor or rating agency integrated  these ESG risks at the heart of country analyses. Nevertheless, a degradation of 10 % of the production capacity in biological resources of a country can degrade its trade balance, 1 to 4 % of its GDP. What means, in the financial jargon, that the environmental risks are financially materials for the sovereign credit risk .


Notation agencies : business as usual 

In the light of the appeals for a bigger supervision and to more regulations from the rating agencies, these agencies would have the opportunity to show their leadership by taking a more proactive approach. Along the launch of the initiative, the UNEP-FI and its partners had invited Standard and Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s to participate in the project. Unfortunately Moody’s did not answer, Fitch declined and only Standard and Poor’s demonstrated some interest, but not to the point to join the initiative. While a project of European rating agency is in debate in Brussels, this situation could change soon? Let’s hope that the phase two of E-RISC, in preparation, will bring some breach !


Integrating ecological risk in sovereign credit risk models and investments

Most investors have long thought that the traditional economic indicators —and more recently, high-level environmental and political factors — were sufficient to comprehensively understand country-level competitiveness and the robustness of their economies. However, we live in an ever-more ecologically and fiscally constrained world. This is not only evident from the on-going debt crisis, but also from climate change, water scarcity, food shortages, deforestation and the many other environmental crises that we face today. Current consumption, demographic and environmental degradation patterns mean that these sorts of issues could influence the resilience of countries to deal with such changing environmental patterns in the medium to long-term. Thus, the risk frameworks that are currently being used to assess the exposure of financial products to creeping local, national and global risks must better reflect the interconnected and systemic nature of the 21st century.

The availability of natural capital for our economies is likely to increasingly become financially relevant. This can be the case not only for individual businesses, but most likely for nations as well. Natural capital can be defined as the stock of ecosystems which provides a renewable flow of goods and services such as fish, crops, timber, climate regulation and many other services. In the last few years, there have been a variety of studies that have improved the understanding of the value of ecosystem-services (such as The Economic of Ecosystems and Biodiversity, TEEB, coordinated by UNEP) as well as ecological degradation and over-use as a considerable cost to society, business and nations. For example, a study by the PRI and UNEP FI , commissioned to Trucost, measured the magnitude of global environmental externalities to be US $ 6.6 trillion in 2008, about 11 percent of the value of the global economy. The question is whether such environmental phenomena affect the financial underpinnings of sovereign fixed income investments or other types of securities. A country’s use and availability of ecosystem services plays a role in the health of its economy and its ability to secure a high quality of life for its citizens. Therefore, both the availability and use of these resources are likely to influence core economic indicators, such as its sovereign credit ratings and a nation’s ability to meet future debt obligations (positively or negatively).

Although considerable progress has been made to assess and compare the financial performance of ‘conventional’ equities with equities that embed environmental, social and governance (ESG) into financial frameworks for equity performance, to date, little progress has been made linking ESG materiality to fixed income investments, especially for sovereign bonds. This may have to do with their more ‘passive’ nature of investing. However, bonds are not shielded from systemic risks related to climate change and weather extremes, water scarcity, ecosystem degradation and availability of natural capital. At present, though, these global environmental externalities and other ESG issues are not systematically analyzed, valued or priced by capital markets).




Approach 

Global Footprint Network’s data, including Ecological Footprint and biocapacity measurements (Figure 1), will provide the basis for the analysis. The Ecological Footprint tracks the demands that humanity places upon the planet. This is compared to biocapacity, the regenerative biological capacity of the Earth.

The focus is on the "credit risk" rather than the "financial performance" of government bonds. We aim to make a direct link between ecological risk (as one in a range of possible material ESG factors) and sovereign credit risk. To this end, we are focusing on the integration of financially material, ecological indicators into credit risk models; this is in contrast to the separate screening tools currently used that are based on qualitative environmental information. A conceptual overview is given in Figure 1. In the practical linkage between natural resource use and availability to the functioning of our economies, the starting point is the comparison between humanity’s demand (Ecological Footprint) and the Earth’s biocapacity.




Figure 1: Conceptual overview of how to address the linkages between ecological, economic and financial risk may be addressed

The world is has been in ecological overshoot since the 1970s and in 2008 humanity demanded an additional half a planet’s worth of resources . When the Ecological Footprint associated with a nation is greater than the domestic biocapacity, that nation is said to be in "biocapacity deficit." An increase in biocapacity deficit, coupled with the rising costs of competing for resources from foreign ecosystems also under stress, may undermine a country's economic stability, competitiveness, and resilience to cope with increasingly interconnected financial, economic and environmental shocks.
   

Other relevant criteria not accounted for in credit ratings will also be analyzed and integrated into the methodology. The goal is to foster shared learning from working with banks, investors and credit rating agencies, and to enable the integration of ecological risk in sovereign credit ratings and government bonds.

To note a Country is not to note a company

Actually, the question of the weighting constitutes a choice differentiating between the investors or the managers: as for one asset manager the distribution maybe almost inverse of that of the FIDH, which is of 70/20/10 between the Environment, the Social and Governance (as quoted in the report of progress 2011 of the PRI of the UNO). Other element of differentiation, the normative exclusion: certain investors refuse to loan to States which did not ratify international conventions as the Kyoto protocol, for example.

The risk of degradation of the natural capital

Directly bound to the self-sufficiency of the country in natural resources, the first one estimates the exposure of the country at the price changes of natural resources. It is very high for example in the case of Japan. As for the risk of "degradation", it translates the trend of the country in over-consuming its natural capital: out of the five studied countries, they are India and Turkey which are the most exposed, while France best protects its capital. 

mercredi 25 juillet 2012

Li(e)bor Scandal : Infographic For Dummies

Infographic for Dummies


Since (at least) 2005, Barclays has been manipulating LIBOR, and their traders have been allegedly pocketing $40MM a day betting on interest rate derivatives. If the LIBOR, one of the most fundamental metrics of our banking system can be rigged, can you imagine what other elements of our financial system are a fraud? This morning's comments from European regulators appears to confirm that this story has a long way to go as ECB's Almunia states: "The evidence we have collected is quite telling so I am pretty sure this investigation will not be closed without results."

Exposing Barclays LIBOR Rigging Scandal
Via: HealthcareAdministration.com

lundi 23 juillet 2012

Lieborgate not the end yet


Here Come The Arrests

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/22/2012 13:12 -0400 Thanks to his thorough investigations and comments
For over four years, virtually everyone in the finance industry knew that Libor was manipulated. The stench of manipulation rose to the very top and thanks to a document release of formerly confidential information, we now know for a fact that even the Fed was in on it - recall that as part of production, the Fed provided a transcript of an April 2008 phone call between a Barclays trader in New York and Fed official Fabiola Ravazzolo, in which the unidentified trader said: "So, we know that we're not posting um, an honest LIBOR.

And yet without any tangible, black on white evidence, there was no catalyst for pursuing legal action. That all changed when in a desperate attempt to protect its ass, Barclays decided to rat out everyone by settling with regulators, and "turn state" producing e-mail based evidence, most of it quite visual (after all what is more tangible to the common man that evil bankers sipping on Bollinger), which essentially threw years of quiet cartel cooperation under the bus. 
As a result, regulators, enforcers, and legal authorities, many of whom were in on this manipulation from the beginning, no longer had an excuse to not pursue civil and criminal charges against perpetrators, who until recently were footing the tabs at various gentlemen's venues and ultra expensive restaurants. And while the imminent waterfall of civil prosecution will force bank litigation reserves to go through the roof, here comes, with a very long delay, the criminal charges. 
But before we get into it, we wanted to share something mildly curious involving that British Bankers Association: the entity that until recently at least, was implicitly in charge of the Libor fixing, submission, and distribution process (also the entity that will quite soon be non-existent). It involves the BBA's self-professed Governance process and obligations. The extract below shows what it is currently.
All aspects of the operation and management of bbalibor as a benchmark are the responsibility of the independent Foreign Exchange and Money Markets Committee ('FX&MM Committee'). This includes design of the benchmark and the governance and scrutiny of all bbalibor data and all panel bank contributions. BBA LIBOR Ltd undertakes the day to day running of the benchmark under the supervision of the Foreign Exchange and Money Markets Committee. As of 1st January 2010, BBA LIBOR Ltd. has been governed by an independent Board.

Thomson Reuters - the 'Designated Distributor' of BBA LIBOR - is tasked with collecting the daily submissions that are inputs into the bbalibor process and submitting them to rigorous checks before publishing the resulting calculation to the market. If any bank submission falls outside a defined set of parameters, Thomson Reuters will consult the contributor and request confirmation that the rate provided is correct, thus allowing any simple typing errors to be amended promptly. These parameters are agreed by the FX&MM Committee and are regularly reviewed to ensure they reflect prevailing market conditions and maintain the highest level of scrutiny over the rates.

There is a named individual at each bank responsible for submitting the daily bbalibor rates to Thomson Reuters and this will be the person responsible for the bank's cash - usually their title is 'treasurer' or similar. There is written guidance on what information that person should take into account when calculating that day's rates for his or her bank. As all contributor banks are regulated, they are responsible to their regulators, rather than BBA LIBOR Ltd. or the FX&MM Committee, for maintaining appropriate procedures for contributing, including the maintenance of internal chinese walls.
The reason we have bolded the third paragraph is that if one had gone to the BBA's Governance section as recently as a few weeks ago, or prior to Liborgate becoming front page news, the paragraph read something totally different. However, courtesy of the Way Back Machine, we have a great idea of just what the BBA quietly and under the radar tried to change vis-a-vis its own obligations and responsibilities in the Libor scandal. This is what the third paragraph said before.
BBA LIBOR Ltd. receives the fixings and underlying contributor data at the same time as all other live data recipients and monitors all submissions into the fixing process. Any anomalous rates are queried with the submitting bank, and a log of these queries is kept and given to the FX&MM Committee on a periodic basis, who may choose at their discretion to follow up these queries in line with established governance and scrutiny procedures.
Up until literally minutes ago, the question to be asked was why was this change made on the page, on a governance page of all places, a change which shirks responsibility and accountability and begs the question, did BBA log any queries of anomalous rates, did the FX&MM Committee follow up on any queries, or are they simply trying to bury something here? Now, thanks to Reuters, we know.
With arrests on deck, the BBA is doing everything it can to distance itself from what it knows with absolute certainty is about to be a shitstorm of epic proportions:
U.S. prosecutors and European regulators are close to arresting individual traders and charging them with colluding to manipulate global benchmark interest rates, according to people familiar with a sweeping investigation into the rate-rigging scandal.

Federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C., have recently contacted lawyers representing some of the individuals under suspicion to notify them that criminal charges and arrests could be imminent, said two of those sources who asked not to be identified because the investigation is ongoing.

Defense lawyers, some of whom represent individuals under suspicion, said prosecutors have indicated they plan to begin making arrests and filing criminal charges in the next few weeks. In long-running financial investigations it is not uncommon for prosecutors to contact defense lawyers for individuals before filing charges to offer them a chance to cooperate or take a plea, these lawyer said.

The prospect of charges and arrests of individuals means that prosecutors are getting a fuller picture of how traders at major banks allegedly sought to influence the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, and other global rates that underpin hundreds of trillions of dollars in assets. The criminal charges would come alongside efforts by regulators to punish major banks with fines, and could show that the alleged activity was not rampant in the banks.
Actually what it will show is that criminal activity was not only rampant, but everyone knew about it, certainly the regualtors, and most certainly the Fed and the BOE. After all how could they not: they are the ultimate entities who manipulate rates. But for them it is a matter of "policy." As such they are desperate to throw anyone under the bus, as long as public attention is redirected from them.
So where will the first arrests come? Why the world's biggest bank of course.
The source familiar with the regulatory investigation in Europe said two traders who have been suspended from Deutsche Bank were among those being investigated. A Deutsche Bank spokesman declined to comment.
Then, once DB is down and out, next it will be a turn to not only break up of the IR derivative trading cabal in Geneva, but also extract a solid fee from the Swiss banks in the process.
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that regulators were looking at suspected communication among four traders who had worked at Barclays, Credit Agricole, HSBC and Deutsche Bank.
And so the tide turns, as banks, all of which should have ended up as bailed out utilities in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse, will now be forced to fork over billions in cash to the same governments and administrations that bailed them out in the first place, under the guise of civil and criminal penalty disgorgement in what will almost certainly end up as the biggest financial settlement in history, one which will leave most of the world's banks sorely undercapitalized and force the Basel implementation of various capital requirements to be scrapped indefinitely.

vendredi 20 juillet 2012

LIBORGATE


Behind the Libor Scandal

SEE LINKS AT THE END
The recent settlement with Barclays Bank over its LIBOR(1) fixing fraud has gotten.... some.... attention. Not a lot of attention, though. Why is that, given that this fraud potentially affected trillions of dollars in assets?
I think the obvious answer is that (a) it's really complicated and (b) everyone's a little vague about just who got ripped off here. On a list service I subscribe to, a seemingly knowledgeable participant (2) said the victims of the scam include investors who owned floating rate notes, LIBOR-linked CDs, or pay-fixed-receive-floating interest rate swaps; or anyone who traded LIBOR contracts on a U.S. futures exchange and lost  money. And let's face it: that doesn't sound much like widows and pensioners, does it?
What's more, the LIBOR scam wasn't about pushing LIBOR systematically up or down. Sometimes it was pushed up, sometimes it was pushed down, depending on whatever happened to be good for the Barclays trading desk on any given day. 
Nonetheless, it's a big deal, and I think the Economist pretty much nails it here:
The attempts to rig LIBOR [...] not only betray a culture of casual dishonesty; they set the stage for lawsuits and more regulation right the way round the globe. This could well be global finance’s “tobacco moment”....Despite the risks of banker-bashing, a clean-up is in order, for the banking industry’s credibility is shot, and without trust neither the business nor the clients it serves can prosper. 



Right now the scandal is not limited to Barclays, UBS is said to be next in line, and other banks that haven't cooperated as willingly will take longer to prosecute. In theory, though, the news is likely to be even worse once those cases finish up.
Roughly speaking, the view from inside Barclays is that they're being treated unfairly. They cooperated, after all, and they say that other banks were way more involved in the LIBOR-fixing scam than they were. If that's true, one of two things will happen. 
Either this scandal will explode way beyond the financial press, where it's mostly played out so far. Or it will turn out that declining to cooperate makes it really hard to prosecute the other banks and Barclays will look like idiots for doing so. I'm not sure which to put my money on.
1LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate. It's basically the current interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money, and it changes on a daily basis. So if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, for example, your interest rate might be LIBOR + 3, or something like that.
2How's that for a reliable source?

 Culture of Casual Dishonesty


As I spend most of days trying to recover from Traumatic Brain Injury - does one actually "recover" from such? I have been reading Economic materials to stimulate my cognitive processing. And I am beginning to wonder if Bankers have Traumatic Brain Injury they seem to exhibit much of the same traits and behaviors. 
Typical behavioral problems experienced by traumatic brain injury survivors include:
Self-centeredness
Aggression
Inappropriate sexual behavior
Extreme temper
Cursing
Manipulative behavior

If that doesn't describe a banker what does? Shoot I may have a new career as at least mine is official. 
To many the LIBOR scandal is not even on the radar or its thought of as some scandal in England. Well in this case you are half right. But its actually also being handled in England appropriately. And like the Murdoch scandal it is not being ignored. If anyone thinks that the Murdoch's kept their illegality and impropriety in Journalism confined to across the pond I have a bridge to sell you and JP Morgan Chase can finance it for you.
I think Matt Taibbi from Rolling Stone, a writer whose ire I admire, does an excellent job covering technical economic issues I think with plain speaking and the rough edges I admire. Here is the link to his blog articles on the subject: 

See the BOE note in the article 
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also expected to appear before the Senate Banking Committee in the coming weeks to face similar questions.

Last Friday the New York Federal Reserve, which Mr Geithner was in charge of at the time, released a trove of documents showing that Barclays informed the regulator about its concerns over Libor manipulation as far back as August 2007.
The documents also showed that by June 2008 Mr Geithner was concerned enough to formally contact Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to report the problems relating to Barclays and other banks, and made recommendations to shore up the Libor setting process.
The Bank passed the email on to the British Bankers Association (BBA), which, according to Mr King, assured both the Bank and the NY Fed that it would take on board the recommendations.
The BBA has responsibility for overseeing Libor. It is not yet clear how it dealt with the information from the Fed.
And I have reprinted the article below from today's New York Times and it does a great and simplistic way of explaining why LIBOR matters. 





SEE INFOGRAPHY Click the link below to see the full graphic.
Behind the Libor Scandal – Graphic – NYTimes.com

The British, at Least, Are Getting Tough

NY TIMES : By GRETCHEN MORGENSON Published: July 7, 2012

The unfolding story of how Barclays — and, in all likelihood, other big banks — rigged interest rates is full of telling tidbits about the way Wall Street works. It also represents yet another teachable moment.
By now the world knows that Barclays manipulated the most widely used benchmark rate, the London interbank offered rate. But Barclays is just one member of the cozy club that sets the Libor, which is supposed to be based on the average rate at which large banks can borrow money overnight. It’s not based on actual transactions, however — and that leaves room for mischief.
And mischief there was, according to e-mails and other documents that Barclays has turned over to regulators in the United States and Britain. The upshot: traders colluded by posting rates that either helped their bets in the markets or their bank’s perceived financial strength during the harrowing days of 2008.


In October 2008, a Bank of England official questioned why Barclays’ submissions were high compared with other banks. After this, the Barclays rates fell closer to those of other banks. Barclays has released documents saying that some bank executives believed the official had instructed them to lower its rates, but the official has denied any improper actions.


Manipulating the Libor is a big deal because it affects the cost of money for almost everyone. The Libor is used to set rates on mortgages, credit cards and all manner of loans, personal and commercial. The amount of money affected by the phony rates is at least $500 trillion, British regulators have estimated.
Barclays is not the only bank under investigation for rigging the Libor. It was simply the first to own up to the behavior and settle with regulators, paying $450 million. Other banks will almost certainly follow, and the documents bound to bubble up in those cases will surely prove fascinating.
One of the most revealing exchanges in the Barclays documents came when a bank official tried to describe why Barclays’s improper postings were not as problematic as those of other banks. “We’re clean but we’re dirty-clean, rather than clean-clean,” an executive said in a phone conversation. Talk about defining deviancy down.
“Dirty clean” versus “clean clean” pretty much sums up Wall Street’s view of cheating. If everybody does it, nobody should be held accountable if caught. Alas, many United States regulators and prosecutors seem to have bought into this argument.
British authorities have not. Last week’s defenestrations of Marcus Agius, the Barclays chairman; Robert E. Diamond Jr., its hard-charging chief executive; and Jerry del Missier, its chief operating officer, apparently occurred at the behest of the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority, the nation’s top securities regulator. (Mr. del Missier also seems to have lost his post as chairman of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the big Wall Street lobbying group. His name vanished last week from the list of board members on the group’s Web site.)
MR. DIAMOND seemed shocked to be pushed out. An American by birth, he probably thought he’d be subject to American rules of engagement when confronted with evidence of wrongdoing at his bank. You know how it works on this side of the Atlantic: faced with a scandal, most chief executives jettison low-level employees, maybe give up a bonus or two — and then ride out the storm. Regulators, if they act, just extract fines from the shareholders.
British officials are taking a different approach with this scandal. George Osborne, the chancellor of the Exchequer, was direct in his assessment of Barclays’s activities. “It is clear that what happened in Barclays and potentially other banks was completely unacceptable, was symptomatic of a financial system that elevated greed above all other concerns and brought our economy to its knees,” he said in a statement on June 28. “Punish wrongdoing. Right the wrong of the age of irresponsibility.”
Later, in a speech to Parliament, Mr. Osborne voiced the question that so many have asked recently in the United States. “Fraud is a crime in ordinary business — why shouldn’t it be so in banking?” he asked.
Perhaps the biggest lesson from the Libor scandal is how dangerous it is to rely on interested parties to set interest rates or prices of financial instruments, rather than on actual transactions conducted by investors. The Libor has been set in the current and vulnerable manner since the late 1960s. Maybe it has never been rigged before, but who knows?
It is far better to have the transparent and verifiable record of prices created by a tape of electronic trading. Such records are standard pricing mechanisms for many securities. But not all.
Prices of derivatives, especially credit default swaps that trade one-to-one, can still be based on one dealer’s say-so. That’s why a rule proposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that would require pretrade price transparency in the swaps market is so important.
But it is also why Wall Street is pushing back, especially on the commission’s proposal that swap execution facilities provide market participants, before they buy or sell, with easily accessible prices on “a centralized electronic screen.” The commission’s rule would eliminate the one-to-one dealings by telephone that are so lucrative to traders and so expensive to investors.
A bill intended to gut the commission’s proposed rule and to maintain dealers’ profits in derivatives failed to go anywhere after being passed last year by two committees in the House of Representatives — Financial Services and Agriculture. That was a good thing.
But there are rumblings in Washington that this bill has resurfaced and that it may be quietly attached to a House Agriculture Committee appropriations bill scheduled for a vote this month. The bill, if passed, would bar the requirement for a centralized pricing platform to shed light on the enormous swaps market. It would also prevent regulators from requiring that a number of participants provide price quotations to customers, a way to ensure fairness.
It’s hard to believe, in the wake of the Libor mess, that Wall Street and its supporters in Congress would continue to battle against price transparency in any market. Then again, that’s precisely what they did after the credit crisis.
With each new financial imbroglio, the gulf widens between Main Street’s opinion of Wall Street and the industry’s view of itself. When Mr. del Missier, the former Barclays chief operating officer, took over as chairman of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association last November, he said: “We will continue to work on maintaining and burnishing the level of confidence investors have in our markets, in our own financial institutions, and in the general economic outlook for the future.”
Given the Libor scandal, let’s just say good luck with that.
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